Analysts See 30% Upside in Siemens Energy Despite 17% Monthly Rout and Lukewarm Buyback Start

Siemens Energy shares fall 17% in past month, ignore €1bn buyback and 2.4 GW Taiwan gas turbine order. RBC and Berenberg reaffirm outperform ratings, citing record backlog.

Siemens Energy is navigating a curious divergence. Its stock has shed roughly 17% over the past month, with shares changing hands at €154.20 on Friday — about 21% below the April peak and beneath both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Yet within the span of 24 hours last week, two investment banks reaffirmed their bullish calls, and the company unveiled a €1bn share buyback alongside a major Taiwanese gas turbine order. The market, however, remains unmoved.

Taiwan Win Adds 2.4 GW to Pipeline

The fresh catalyst comes from Asia. Siemens Energy signed a contract with Mai-Liao Power Corporation in Taiwan for a combined-cycle gas power plant with a total capacity of 2,400 megawatts. The package includes four SGT6-9000HL gas turbines, matching generators, steam turbines, and long-term service agreements.

Scheduled to enter commercial operation by the end of 2029, the facility is expected to generate about 14 billion kilowatt-hours annually — roughly 5% of Taiwan’s total electricity output. By replacing aging coal-fired capacity, the plant will cut CO? emissions per kilowatt-hour by around 58%.

Buyback Details, but No Firepower Yet

Siemens Energy’s latest share repurchase tranche kicked off on 4 June and runs until 30 September 2026. The company plans to buy back up to €1bn in own shares, with a cap of 57 million shares. The repurchased equity will be used for share-based compensation, employee programmes or cancellation. An independent broker will execute the trades on Xetra as well as on CBOE DXE, Aquis Exchange Europe and Turquoise Europe, with the purchase price limited to a 10% premium above the Xetra opening auction price and a maximum discount of 20%.

So far, however, the buyback has provided little support. The initial June overview showed no entries for volume, average price or amount, and no daily purchases had been disclosed yet. Under the programme’s rules, each individual trade must be reported by the end of the seventh trading day after execution. Until those disclosures appear, the share price seems to be waiting for real data rather than an announcement.

Analysts Double Down on Outperform Calls

RBC Capital Markets held its “Outperform” rating and €200 price target on 5 June. Analyst Mark Fielding argued that European capital goods companies are set for growth in 2026, naming Siemens Energy as a top pick thanks to long business cycles and structurally attractive end markets.

Berenberg went a step further a day earlier, lifting its price target from €200 to €205 while reiterating a buy recommendation. The bank pointed to the record order backlog and surging demand from US hyperscalers. Siemens Energy has already secured orders and reservations for 87 gigawatts through the second quarter of 2026, and that figure could climb past 100 gigawatts by year-end.

Fundamentals Remain Solid Despite Technical Weakness

The stock’s technical picture has cooled markedly over the past month. The relative strength index sits at 35.9 in one reading and 37.2 in another, both indicating elevated selling pressure without yet reaching deeply oversold territory. On a seven-day view, shares have dropped 4.05%; on a monthly basis, the decline is nearly 16%. The 50-day moving average of €168.46 has been breached, and the current price is about 15% below the 200-day line.

Yet the underlying business metrics tell a different story. Siemens Energy’s order backlog stands at roughly €154bn. The company’s full-year 2026 guidance calls for comparable revenue growth of 14% to 16%, an operating margin before special items of 10% to 12%, net profit of around €4bn, and free cash flow before taxes of about €8bn. In the second quarter alone, orders reached €17.7bn, revenue came in at €10.3bn, and net profit totalled €835m.

What Will Shift the Sentiment?

The stock retains a year-to-date gain of about 26% to 27% and a 12-month advance of nearly 77%. That impressive run is what profit-takers are now capitalising on, undeterred by either the buyback or the Taiwan contract. For the share price to realign with analyst targets — which imply roughly 30% upside from current levels — the market wants to see concrete evidence that the order intake momentum continues in the second half of the year.

That proof will come with the next quarterly report and, in the nearer term, the first published buyback transaction data. Until then, Siemens Energy’s stock sits at the intersection of strong operational tailwinds and short-term technical fatigue — a stand-off that only fresh numbers can resolve.