Analysts Bet on Almonty as Tungsten’s Strategic Value Reaches a Tipping Point

Almonty stock surges 725% as tungsten prices soar from China export curbs. Q1 revenue up 221%, Sangdong mine commissioned, Wall Street upgrades to Buy.

When governments pour billions into critical minerals, most of the cash lands in rare earths. Tungsten, an industrial and defence metal essential for everything from cutting tools to armour, has been left in the shadows. That mismatch is now producing one of the market’s most striking re-ratings. Almonty Industries, the Canadian tungsten developer, has watched its stock surge more than 725% over the past twelve months as China’s export curbs send prices soaring and investors scramble for supply outside Beijing’s orbit.

The rally has drawn fresh attention from Wall Street. BofA Securities lifted its price target on the stock to $23 from $20, maintaining a “Buy” rating. Texas Capital initiated coverage with a “Buy” and a $25 target, signalling that the market is finally pricing Almonty as an operating producer rather than a speculative project.

A quarter that changed the narrative

Almonty’s first-quarter numbers gave analysts the hard data they needed. Revenue jumped to $25.4 million, a 221% increase from the $7.9 million reported a year earlier, driven by higher tungsten prices and rising output. Adjusted EBITDA swung to $6.1 million from a loss in the prior-year period, while operating cash flow turned positive at $9.7 million. A net loss of $5.3 million remained, but that included $8.4 million in non-cash revaluation expenses, leaving the balance sheet with $259.9 million in liquidity.

The operational improvement has been mirrored in the share price. Year-to-date the stock has climbed roughly 138%. On the Australian Securities Exchange it closed at A$28.51, up 4.66%, and in Toronto it reached C$28.62, a gain of 7.63%. The annualised volatility stands at 89%, a reflection of the speculative froth around tungsten.

Sangdong: the linchpin of the strategy

At the centre of the investment case is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which Almonty formally commissioned on 17 March 2026. The asset is pivotal to the company’s ambition to become a major tungsten supplier outside China, which controls more than 80% of global production. Chinese export restrictions have already pushed Fastmarkets’ tungsten price assessment up by nearly 90%.

Yet the industry faces obstacles beyond geopolitics. A study by BMO Global Commodities Research found that of the roughly $18.6 billion the US government directs towards critical mineral projects, only a fraction reaches tungsten. Meanwhile, a chronic shortage of qualified personnel is slowing the development of alternative supply chains. Almonty’s chief executive, Lewis Black, will address both issues this week, speaking at BofA Securities’ Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference in Miami on 13 May and at the Critical Minerals Institute Summit in Toronto the following day.

To underline the mine’s significance, the company has launched a competition for long-term Canadian shareholders: anyone who has held their shares for at least three years can enter a draw to visit Sangdong. The winner will be selected in early June.

Pricing transparency on the horizon

The tungsten market could soon gain more clarity. Fastmarkets is consulting on a formal price assessment for the metal, with a consultation phase running until 26 May and a final methodology expected shortly after. That process may reduce the pricing opacity that has long troubled the sector and further validate Almonty’s position as a listed proxy for the tungsten squeeze.

In a further strategic move, Almonty relocated its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, placing it closer to North American industrial and policy circles where critical minerals are increasingly a national security priority. The next leg of the re-rating will hinge on whether Sangdong can deliver the production ramp the market is betting on.