Ams Osram’s 192% Rally Hinges on Antitrust Approval for €570 Million Infineon Divestment

Ams Osram awaits cartel office decision on €570M sensor sale to Infineon to cut leverage to 2.5. Stock hits 52-week high on turnaround hopes, despite ongoing net losses.

The clock is ticking on two fronts for Ams Osram. Shareholders have until May 31 to register for the June 10 annual general meeting in Premstätten, while the Bundeskartellamt holds the key to the company’s most significant debt-reduction lever. The cartel office has been reviewing the planned €570 million sale of the non-optical sensor business to Infineon since March 3, with a decision expected in the second quarter of 2026.

A green light would slash Ams Osram’s leverage ratio from 3.3 to roughly 2.5 — the single largest step in the entire restructuring playbook. The proceeds, combined with the €114 million from the Ushio sale, will allow the group to call its high-yield bonds issued in 2023, which become callable from the end of March. The ultimate goal: bring annual financing costs down from as much as €300 million to below €150 million by 2028.

The market has already priced in the turnaround. The stock closed at €24.80 on Friday, marking a new 52-week high. That represents a gain of 191.76% since the start of the year and a 21.57% advance over the past seven days. Over the last 30 sessions, the shares have surged nearly 87%. The rally began from a December low and has more than tripled the stock price.

Yet the current quarter still reports a net loss of €72 million. Investors are buying the 2027 narrative, when management expects to generate positive free cash flow. The company has already laid out a path: a new €1 billion senior note with a 7.250% coupon maturing in 2032, together with earlier refinancing measures involving a credit facility and other notes worth €700 million, aims to stabilise the capital structure.

Parallel to the Infineon deal, Ams Osram has agreed to sell its CMOS image sensor business to indie Semiconductor for €40 million, of which €35 million is in cash. About €20 million will go directly toward debt reduction, with the transaction expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. Management sees these disposals as critical to sharpening the focus on the core business.

Analysts are taking note. JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight with a price target of CHF 23.60, while Jefferies rates it Buy at CHF 21.00. UBS has also maintained its buy recommendation. The refinancing steps are being read not just as necessary, but as a signal that the restructuring is gaining traction.

Operationally, the company has guided for second-quarter 2026 revenue between €725 million and €825 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.5% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. For the full year, free cash flow is expected to exceed €300 million, a target that will depend heavily on the smooth execution of the divestitures and the associated cost savings.

Technically, the stock looks extended. The relative strength index stands at 71.0, putting it in overbought territory. The annualised 30-day volatility has hit 111.45%, and the share price trades 130.43% above its 200-day moving average. The disconnect between operational losses and the share price surge leaves little room for error — any stumble in the refinancing or the cartel office’s timeline could quickly test the market’s patience.