AMD's China Balancing Act: Export Curbs Tighten as Stock Nears Record on Data Center Boom

AMD reports record Q1 data center revenue and beats EPS estimates. New US export controls target indirect routes to China as the stock nears its 52-week high.

Washington is closing a loophole in its semiconductor export controls, and the move lands squarely on AMD’s fast-growing data center business. The US Bureau of Industry and Security now plans to enforce licensing requirements for advanced AI chips even when the buyer is based outside China — if the parent company is Chinese-controlled. The policy targets an indirect procurement route that may have funneled hundreds of thousands of chips through subsidiaries in places like Malaysia.

Yet AMD has quietly carved out a four percent share of China’s AI chip market — no small feat while rivals see their access shrink. Chief Executive Lisa Su personally travelled to Beijing in May 2026 to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng, a rare high-level signal that AMD treats China as a strategic priority rather than a lost cause. The company’s open-source ROCm software platform has helped keep doors open, with Alibaba already a customer.

The new export rules do not require removal of chips already installed, nor do they automatically cut off service for existing advanced systems. That provides short-term relief, but leaves the question of future demand from Chinese-controlled overseas entities wide open. For AMD, which has staked its growth story on AI infrastructure, the uncertainty adds a geopolitical overlay to an otherwise powerful operational narrative.

The numbers from the first quarter make that story compelling. Revenue hit $10.25 billion, up nearly 38 percent year-over-year. The data center segment alone surged 57 percent to $5.78 billion, driven by EPYC processors and the ongoing ramp of Instinct GPUs. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.37, beating consensus estimates of $1.29.

For the second quarter, AMD expects around $11.2 billion in revenue, plus or minus $300 million. At the midpoint, that would represent a 46 percent jump from a year earlier and a roughly nine percent sequential increase. Adjusted gross margin is forecast near 56 percent. Behind those projections are concrete infrastructure commitments: OpenAI and Meta each have six-gigawatt capacity pledges, and Oracle plans a 50,000-GPU cluster called Helios in the third quarter of 2026.

The stock has priced in much of this optimism. Shares closed Friday at €442.95, just shy of the 52-week high of €444.80. The gain since the start of the year stands at 132 percent. That rally has stretched the 14-day relative strength index to 29.1, a technically overextended reading. The price-to-earnings multiple hovers around 169.

Meanwhile, the insider trading pattern offers a nuanced picture. Nomura Asset Management increased its stake by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, holding roughly 707,000 shares, and institutional investors own 71.34 percent of the company. On the sell side, CEO Lisa Su disposed of 125,000 shares at an average of $445.51 in May under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. EVP Forrest Norrod followed a few days later, selling nearly 19,500 shares at $431.40. Such transactions are scheduled, not a red flag, but they show management taking profits near the top.

Analyst targets have struggled to keep up with the stock. The average price target ranges from $410 to $472, meaning the current share price sits above the consensus. Bullish houses like 24/7 Wall St. see potential to $600 based on the MI450 pipeline. The long-term addressable market for server CPUs is estimated at over $120 billion by 2030, growing more than 35 percent annually.

Export restrictions remain a tangible risk. The MI308 product line alone cost AMD $800 million in 2025 due to prior controls, and any escalation in US-China trade policy could resurrect that hit. For now, AMD has not quantified the potential impact of the latest rule tightening, leaving the market to weigh strong operational momentum against a tightening geopolitical frame. The next moves from Washington or from AMD itself could shift the debate quickly.