Altria Shares Reach New Peak on Confirmed Outlook and Strategic Pivot

Altria confirms 2026 EPS forecast of $5.56-$5.72, fueled by a strategic shift to oral nicotine like 'on!' pouches and a reliable ~6.1% dividend, driving shares to a 52-week high.

Investors are currently receiving a commodity that has grown scarce in equity markets: predictability. Altria Group has reaffirmed its earnings guidance for 2026, simultaneously outlining its ongoing strategic transition toward smoke-free products despite a challenging regulatory landscape. This combination of clarity and strategic direction is fueling the stock's recent strength.

Quarterly Results and Shareholder Returns Provide Foundation

The rally finds support in the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results, reported on January 29. Revenue reached $5.08 billion, slightly surpassing expectations of $5.02 billion. However, adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.30, a minor disappointment compared to the $1.32 consensus. Revenue also declined by 0.5% year-over-year, reflecting the ongoing structural decrease in cigarette volumes.

For the full year 2025, Altria reported adjusted EPS growth of +4.4% and returned $8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. A separate $2.0 billion share repurchase program authorized in October 2025 remains active. The dividend continues to be a central attraction, standing at $1.06 per quarter (annualized $4.24), which sources indicate yields approximately 6.1%. The company has now increased its dividend for 57 consecutive years.

2026 Guidance Confirmed with Clear Timeline

A key driver for the share price was management's presentation at the CAGNY conference on February 18. Altria confirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS forecast of $5.56 to $5.72. This range represents growth of 2.5% to 5.5% from the 2025 base of $5.42.

The projected timing of this growth is notable. The company anticipates a greater portion of earnings expansion will occur in the second half of 2026. This phasing is attributed to a gradual increase in cigarette import and export activities, alongside planned investments in contract manufacturing capacity designed to bolster the shift to smoke-free alternatives.

Strategic Shift: NJOY Exit Amplifies Focus on Oral Nicotine

A critical detail from the update concerns the E-Vapor product NJOY ACE, which will not return to the market in 2026 due to persistent regulatory hurdles. This development shifts the emphasis within the smoke-free portfolio decisively toward oral nicotine products, primarily the on! brand.

According to 24/7 Wall St., shipments of on! nicotine pouches grew by 10.9% in 2025. Furthermore, nicotine pouches now account for 57% of the total oral tobacco market. This segment provides Altria with a crucial near-term growth engine while the E-Vapor category remains constrained by regulation. The strategic bet is clear: oral products are set to play the leading role in the company's 2026 smoke-free transition.

This momentum is now reflected in the market. The stock recently hit a new 52-week high at €58.55.

Looking ahead, the focus for the coming months will center on two questions: whether Altria can deliver on its confirmed 2026 earnings target without NJOY ACE, and if the nicotine pouch division can reliably drive growth and support the broader smoke-free transformation.