Almonty Stock Faces a Defining Fortnight as Sangdong Data, CFO Switch and Molybdenum Ambitions Converge

Almonty Industries faces key tests: first Sangdong tungsten output May 21, expansion vote June 9, new CFO Jorge Beristain. Molybdenum project permits secured.

The next two weeks will test whether Almonty Industries can translate operational milestones into sustained investor confidence. On May 21, the company will release its first production figures from the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea — a crucial reality check for a stock that has already priced in a dramatic rerating. Then, on June 9, shareholders vote on a second expansion phase. In between, the company announced a change at the finance helm: Jorge Beristain takes over as chief financial officer from June 1, replacing Brian Fox, who left with immediate effect.

Beristain arrives with deep capital-markets experience, most recently as vice president of finance at US metals distributor Ryerson Holding and earlier as head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank Securities. His appointment comes as Almonty pivots from developer to producer, and as Western governments scramble to secure non-Chinese sources of strategic minerals. Until Beristain formally assumes the role, Guillaume de Lamaziere will serve as interim CFO.

Sangdong’s first commercial output faces the spotlight

The initial phase of the Sangdong tungsten mine began commercial operations at the end of March. The plant is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The ore grade stands at around 0.51% tungsten trioxide — well above the global average, giving the project a structural cost advantage that underpins the entire investment thesis.

Analysts at D.A. Davidson expect the mine to reach full commercial capacity in the second quarter of 2026. The firm has a price target of $25 per share on Almonty. Other brokerages are also bullish: Alliance Global sets a target of $26.25, while Bank of America sees fair value at $23.

The vote on June 9 concerns the decision to proceed with a second expansion phase. If approved, processing capacity would nearly double to around 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027, potentially covering roughly 40% of the world’s tungsten demand outside China.

Molybdenum stepchild becomes a second engine

Less heralded but equally strategic is the molybdenum project located just 150 metres from the tungsten mine. Almonty has secured all mining and environmental permits, and it targets production start by the end of 2026. The mine has an expected life of around 60 years and at full capacity would deliver roughly 5,600 tonnes of molybdenum annually.

The proximity to the tungsten operation gives Almonty a clear operational edge: shared infrastructure, reduced logistics costs and existing technical expertise should compress both capex and development timelines.

Offtake is already locked in. Almonty signed an exclusive purchase agreement with South Korea’s SeAH M&S, which will buy the entire molybdenum output over the mine’s life. The deal includes a floor price of $19.00 per pound before processing deductions, providing a base for predictable revenue once ramp-up succeeds. Separately, SeAH is investing $110 million in a metals and fabrication plant in Texas that will supply, among others, SpaceX and the US defence and aerospace sector.

Record cash pile and a swing to positive EBITDA

Almonty’s first-quarter numbers underscore the operational shift. Revenue surged 221% to $25.4 million, driven primarily by higher APT (ammonium paratungstate) spot prices, while the Panasqueira mine in Portugal continued to contribute. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $6.1 million. However, a net loss of $5.3 million remained, mainly due to non-cash valuation losses on outstanding warrants triggered by the sharp rise in the share price.

The balance sheet looks sturdy. At the end of March, cash and equivalents stood at $259.9 million, with working capital of $169.5 million. That war chest leaves management well positioned to fund the upcoming expansion without immediate external financing.

Tungsten market tightens as geopolitics reshape supply chains

The rally in tungsten prices has been extraordinary. APT has climbed from around $900 to over $3,000 per metric tonne unit, a gain of more than 230%. The catalyst was China’s shift from export quotas to a licensing system involving only 15 state-controlled firms, effectively freezing APT exports in early 2026. From January 2027, US defence contractors will be banned from using Chinese tungsten, forcing them to source exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers.

Almonty’s stock has recently pulled back. In Toronto, shares closed at C$24.02 on Friday, down 4.68% on the day, and the monthly trend remains soft. But the year-to-date gain is still substantial. The upcoming production numbers, the shareholder vote and the fresh leadership in the finance department now provide the next concrete milestones for a market that wants to see the story backed by hard data.