Almonty Stock Drops 16% in a Week, but Diamond Equity Sees $1.68 EPS by 2027 as Tungsten Prices Triple and Phase 2 Vote Approaches

Almonty shares drop 16% weekly, 25% monthly. Analyst upgrades on Sangdong ramp-up and APT price. Shareholder vote on expansion June 9.

The tungsten developer Almonty Industries is navigating a classic tug-of-war between short-term market jitters and a long-term growth narrative that keeps gaining credibility. Shares closed at C$24.02 on Friday, shedding 16.07% over the past seven days and 25.10% over the last month — a sharp reversal after a staggering 545.70% rally over the past twelve months. Yet beneath the profit?taking lies a series of developments that have analysts raising their earnings forecasts and investors eyeing an upcoming shareholder ballot that could dramatically expand the company’s footprint.

Diamond Equity has lifted its earnings per share estimates for Almonty by a notable margin, citing the ramp?up of the Sangdong mine in South Korea and the persistently strong price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), the benchmark tungsten intermediate. The new projections stand at US$0.72 per share for fiscal 2026, up from US$0.63, and US$1.68 per share for fiscal 2027, compared with an earlier US$1.43. The upgrades are not confined to a single year; expectations have risen across multiple quarters beginning in the second quarter of the next fiscal year, signaling faith in operational momentum rather than a transient price spike.

The tungsten market itself is providing powerful tailwinds. APT in Rotterdam reached US$3,050 per metric tonne unit in May, a gain of more than 200% since the start of the year. Chinese export restrictions and a growing U.S. push to secure non?Chinese supply chains are driving the rally. From January 2027, U.S. defense companies will be required to source tungsten entirely outside China, and Almonty has already locked in long?term offtake agreements with Global Tungsten & Powders and a binding contract with Tungsten Parts Wyoming for at least 40 tonnes of tungsten oxide per month.

The company’s most recent quarterly report, however, gave the market pause. Almonty posted a net loss of US$5.3 million, a figure that included US$8.4 million in non?cash revaluation charges. The operational picture was brighter: revenue hit US$25.4 million, driven by the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and elevated spot prices, while operating cash flow came in at a positive US$9.7 million and adjusted EBITDA reached US$6.1 million. The balance sheet offers additional comfort, with cash reserves of roughly US$259.9 million — important for a company juggling multiple development projects that consume capital.

The centerpiece of the growth story remains Sangdong. After achieving official completion in March, the mine is moving toward commercial production at its first phase. Management is already preparing for a second phase that would boost processing capacity to as much as 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027 — roughly double the original plan. Shareholders will vote on that expansion at the annual general meeting in Toronto on June 9. If approved, Almonty says Sangdong could supply about 40% of the tungsten demand currently sourced from outside China, a strategically significant share given how the metal is vital to industrial, electronics and defense applications.

Alongside Sangdong, Almonty is advancing the Gentung?Browns Lake project in Montana. With mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes, the project is targeting production readiness in the second half of 2026 and annual output of 140,000 metric tonne units of tungsten. Nearly half of that planned production is already spoken for by U.S. buyers, and the company’s recent decision to move its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, underscores its pivot toward Western supply chains.

The shares hit a record high of C$32.07 before the current pullback, which has placed them 8.58% below their short?term moving average. Institutional interest remains visible: Fidelity now holds 18.28 million shares, representing a 6.5% stake. The next few weeks are packed with milestones that could refocus attention on the underlying thesis. On May 20, CEO Lewis Black presents at the virtual International Investment Forum, likely to offer an update on the flagship projects. On June 1, Jorge Beristain assumes the role of chief financial officer. And on June 9 comes the crucial vote on Sangdong Phase 2.

Between a cooling stock price, buoyant commodity markets, analyst upgrades and a decisive shareholder ballot, Almonty finds itself at a moment where the near?term noise and the long?term trajectory are moving in opposite directions. Which force ultimately prevails will hinge on whether the operational milestones the market has been promised begin to materialise on schedule.