Almonty Shares Surge to Record Peak on Revised Analyst Outlook

Almonty Industries shares hit 52-week highs after Couloir Capital raises its price target to C$19.30, citing a tighter tungsten market and US$800/MTU long-term price assumption.

A significant reassessment of the tungsten market's fundamentals has propelled shares of Almonty Industries Inc. to unprecedented levels. The catalyst was a substantial upward revision in the company's fair value estimate by research firm Couloir Capital, which cited stronger long-term pricing assumptions for the critical metal.

Analyst Valuation Soars on Revised Tungsten Pricing

In a recent research update, Couloir Capital dramatically increased its fair value estimate for Almonty to C$19.30 per share, a 151% jump from its previous target of C$7.69. The firm maintained its "Hold" recommendation alongside this new valuation.

The core driver of this reassessment is a fundamental change in the price forecast for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT), a key benchmark for tungsten. Couloir raised its long-term APT price assumption to US$800 per metric tonne unit (MTU), up from US$450/MTU. This adjustment reflects a tightening physical market, with the analyst noting the current spot price has recently risen above US$1,000/MTU.

Equity Markets Respond Forcefully

The market reaction was immediate and pronounced. On the TSX, Almonty's stock hit an intraday high of C$22.30, establishing a fresh 52-week peak. Trading on the NASDAQ saw shares reach US$16.86 on the same day, representing a midday gain of 8.4%. This followed a prior NASDAQ closing price of US$15.47.

Notably, this new high substantially surpasses the previous 52-week record of C$20.55, which was set just days earlier.

Structural Market Tailwinds and Operational Progress

Couloir's report attributes the firmer tungsten price environment to several structural factors. These include elevated APT reference prices, a constrained supply landscape, and demand catalysts from the defense sector. The analysis also identifies China's 2025 export controls as a pivotal factor expected to further tighten supply and accelerate the diversification of Western supply chains.

According to Almonty's own corporate materials, the spot APT price as of mid-February was approximately US$1,738/MTU. Furthermore, the company highlights a forthcoming U.S. defense procurement ban: effective January 1, 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense will be prohibited from sourcing tungsten mined, refined, or produced in China, Russia, or North Korea.

Operationally, focus remains on the ramp-up of the flagship Sangdong mine. Couloir reports that the Sangdong Tungsten Mine has been in active operating status since December 2025 and is progressing steadily toward reaching nameplate capacity by 2027. The report also mentions other development projects, including the expansion of the Panasqueira Mine in Portugal, drilling programs to define resources at the Sangdong Molybdenum Project, and the Gentung Browns Lake project, which is anticipated to move toward production readiness in the second half of this year.

Couloir is not alone in its bullish reassessment. Other analyst firms have also recently raised their targets: DA Davidson increased its price objective from US$12 to US$18 (Buy), and B. Riley Financial lifted its target from US$10 to US$17 (Buy).

Investors are now looking ahead to the next earnings report, expected in mid-March, for initial detailed insights into early production metrics from Sangdong. A striking observation in the current climate is that with the stock's run to C$22.30, the market price already trades above Couloir's new fair value estimate of C$19.30.