Almonty Shares Surge on Supply Squeeze and Strategic Mine Launch

Almonty Industries' stock hits record highs as China's export controls and its new Sangdong mine create a major tungsten supply shortage, driving analyst upgrades.

The stock of tungsten producer Almonty Industries has been reaching unprecedented highs, propelled by a powerful convergence of geopolitical shifts and fundamental operational progress. This rally extends beyond general market optimism, driven by concrete developments including China's tightened export controls on tungsten, the commencement of commercial production at the Sangdong mine in South Korea, and a wave of analyst upgrades. The critical question for investors now is how swiftly these factors will translate into the company's financial performance.

Sangdong Mine: A Strategic Asset Comes Online

A primary catalyst for the renewed market interest is the December 2025 start of commercial production at Almonty's flagship Sangdong project. This mine is viewed as a strategically vital component for building a tungsten supply chain less dependent on China, particularly for the United States and its allies.

The company projects that Sangdong will eventually satisfy approximately 40% of tungsten demand originating outside of China. Plans are already underway for a Phase-II expansion, targeted for completion by 2027, which aims to boost annual capacity to as much as 1.2 million metric tonnes. Alongside Sangdong, Almonty is advancing other projects, including developments in Portugal and a Montana-based operation expected to be ready for production in the latter half of 2026.

Geopolitical Tensions Tighten Tungsten Supply

The broader context for Almonty's ascent is a mounting global push to secure tungsten supply chains beyond Chinese borders. Tungsten is a critical material for high-tech manufacturing and defense applications. Regulatory pressure is mounting: a U.S. ban on Chinese tungsten for military use is set to take effect in 2027, coinciding with new U.S. Department of Defense procurement rules excluding material sourced from China, Russia, or North Korea.

China currently dominates the market, estimated to control up to 80% of global supply. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets note that certain Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a complete halt late in 2025. With inventories being drawn down, the firm sees no relief on the supply side for 2026.

Almonty CEO Lewis Black recently characterized the situation as a "real, legitimate supply shortage." He observed that tungsten pricing is behaving independently of historical control mechanisms for the first time in decades, with customers currently accepting the higher costs.

Analysts and Institutions Revise Their Stance

The share price advance has triggered a significant reassessment by market researchers. Couloir Capital raised its fair value estimate by over 150%, from C$7.69 to C$19.30, citing tungsten prices above $1,000 per Metric Ton Unit (MTU) and the Sangdong ramp-up. Despite this substantial increase, the firm maintained a "Hold" rating.

Other analysts followed suit. DA Davidson lifted its price target from $12.00 to $18.00 in early February. B. Riley Financial increased its target to $17.00, and Oppenheimer initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating on February 5, 2026, raising its target from $12 to $16. The overall market consensus is described as a "Moderate Buy."

Institutional investment has surged in tandem. The number of funds holding positions grew by more than 55% in the latest quarter, reaching 107. Van Eck Associates expanded its stake by a remarkable 13,294.7%, now holding 11.24 million shares valued at approximately $99 million. Other significant new positions include those of Encompass Capital Advisors (around $25.6 million) and Next Century Growth Investors (roughly $16.3 million). To fund its growth, Almonty completed two U.S. capital raises in 2025, generating gross proceeds exceeding $219 million.

All eyes are now on Almonty's quarterly results, scheduled for release on March 19. This report will provide the market with its first concrete look at how the stronger tungsten pricing environment and Sangdong's production ramp are impacting the company's bottom line.