Almonty Shares Surge 85% as Expanded Tungsten Contract Adds $630 Million to Revenue Pipeline

Almonty stock surges 85% on renegotiated 21-year tungsten supply deal, adding $630M in cash flow amid China export curbs and U.S. ban on Chinese tungsten.

Almonty Industries has seen its stock climb 85% since the start of 2026, fueled by an overhauled supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP) that locks in a decade and a half of additional revenue for the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The deal, renegotiated as the Phase 1 processing plant came online on July 1, 2026, extends the offtake term from 15 to 21 years and boosts the contracted volume by 40% to 4.41 million metric tonne units (MTU). The price component increases by 6.3%, with a floor of $183 per MTU and no ceiling. The contract covers roughly 90% of Sangdong’s Phase 1 production and requires a minimum annual offtake of 210,000 MTU.

CEO Lewis Black said the revised terms will generate at least $30 million in additional annual revenue for Almonty, translating to roughly $630 million in extra cash flow over the full 21-year lifespan of the agreement. GTP, a Pennsylvania-based subsidiary of the Plansee Group and a key supplier to the U.S. defense industry, has been Almonty’s partner since 2018. Black highlighted the rare visibility the contract offers, noting that the two-decade horizon provides a revenue baseline that few mining companies can match.

The strategic urgency behind the renegotiation reflects dramatic shifts in the global tungsten market. China accounts for about 79% of worldwide output, and Beijing’s export restrictions, which began tightening in 2025, have sent prices soaring. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices, a benchmark for the industry, jumped from roughly $331 per MTU at the start of 2025 to around $1,900 per MTU by February 2026, according to secondary market data. Adding to the pressure, the U.S. Department of Defense is set to enforce a ban on tungsten of Chinese origin from 2027, forcing Western buyers to lock in alternative supply chains. Sangdong, with 58 million tonnes in reserves and a projected mine life of 45 years, positions Almonty as one of the few non-Chinese producers capable of meeting that demand. The mine also benefits from a separate molybdenum offtake contract with SeAH M&S, and its Phase 1 development was backed by a $75.1 million loan from Germany’s KfW IPEX-Bank. A potential Phase 2 expansion, which would double processing capacity, remains outside the current agreement.

Despite the operational progress, Almonty’s shares trade well below what some analysts consider fair value. A discounted cash-flow model from research firm Simply Wall St pegs the stock’s intrinsic worth at C$60.09, compared to a recent closing price of C$22.31 — a discount of roughly 63%. The average analyst price target stands at C$27.59, while one rating firm assigns a “Buy” recommendation with a target of C$33. The company’s price-to-book ratio sits at 17.9, far above the industry average of 2.6, reflecting the high valuation of its long-life asset. However, Almonty posted a net loss of C$161.9 million for fiscal 2025, highlighting the gap between its future potential and current profitability.

On the price chart, the stock’s trajectory reveals both the magnitude of the year’s rally and the pullback from its peak. Almonty shares hit a 52-week high of C$33.35 in mid-April 2026 but have since retreated about 33% to current levels. The 50-day moving average of C$25.12 sits more than 11% above the market price, while the 200-day average of C$18.82 stands 18.5% below — a pattern that suggests the longer-term uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation. The relative strength index reads 45.3, placing it in neutral territory, while the 30-day annualized volatility is a lofty 98.23%. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 235.5%, and from the 52-week low of C$4.36 set in late July 2025, the appreciation is more than fivefold. Almonty’s market capitalization stands at approximately €3.75 billion.

The broader tungsten sector is also stirring. Australian rival Group 6 Metals reported a net cash inflow of $35 million for the June quarter at its Dolphin mine on King Island, while Rio2 released a technical report on its Kalzas tungsten project in Yukon. For Almonty, the combination of a multi-decade revenue floor, rising demand from Western defense and industrial buyers, and a supply chain constrained by Chinese export controls offers a rare structural thesis. Whether the market will fully price that visibility into the stock’s value, given the recent volatility and current discount to analysts’ estimates, remains an open question for the months ahead.