Almonty Shares Receive Major Analyst Revaluation

Analysts sharply raise Almonty's valuation on soaring tungsten prices and supply constraints. Key drivers include Chinese export controls and U.S. defense policy.

A significant reassessment from the analyst community is providing momentum for Almonty Industries Inc. The tungsten producer's valuation has been sharply increased by Couloir Capital, a move the market has embraced with continued share price strength. This prompts an examination of the concrete drivers behind this revised outlook.

Surging Price Targets and Market Reaction

The catalyst for the recent activity was Couloir Capital's substantial revision of its fair value estimate for Almonty. According to a release disseminated via Newsfile Corp., the research firm raised its target from CAD 7.69 to CAD 19.30 per share. Notably, despite this dramatic upward adjustment, Couloir maintained its "Hold" recommendation on the stock.

The market response was immediate. Data from MarketBeat shows the company's NASDAQ-listed shares advanced by 8.4% to $16.77 on the news, with trading volume reaching approximately 2.19 million shares. The company's market capitalization is reported to be around $4.44 billion. The share price movement has created a notable gap above the short-term trend, with the 50-day moving average standing at $10.87—highlighting the stock's dynamic performance in recent weeks.

Couloir is not alone in its bullish reassessment. MarketBeat data also indicates that DA Davidson raised its price target from $12.00 to $18.00 earlier this month, reaffirming a "Buy" rating. Similarly, B. Riley Financial increased its target from $10.00 to $17.00, also with a "Buy" rating. In a separate update cited in the source text and published via EQS News, Sphene Capital GmbH lifted its target from CAD 13.50 to CAD 20.10, referencing a discounted cash flow (DCF) model that incorporates both producing and development-stage assets.

Core Drivers: Tungsten Pricing and Supply Dynamics

The foundation of Couloir's revaluation lies in a fundamental shift in the long-term price assumption for tungsten. The analyst firm increased its benchmark price forecast for ammonium paratungstate (APT) from $450 to $800 per metric ton unit (MTU). This adjustment is supported by current market conditions, with the report noting the APT spot price had recently exceeded $1,000 per MTU. As of February 13, the spot price was cited in an investor presentation at approximately $1,738 per MTU.

The report identifies structural supply and demand factors underpinning this stronger price environment. Key drivers include defense-related demand and Chinese export controls set for 2025. China, which controls over 80% of global tungsten mine production according to the source material, is tightening export rules. Furthermore, a U.S. defense policy is cited as an additional factor: starting January 1, 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense intends to prohibit the procurement of tungsten originating from China, Russia, and North Korea.

Operational Progress at Flagship Sangdong Mine

Operational developments, particularly at the flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea, are central to the improved financial projections. According to the Couloir report and a February 2026 investor presentation, the Sangdong mine commenced active mining in December 2025 and is currently undergoing a staged ramp-up.

Phase I of the project is designed for an initial operating capacity of 640,000 tonnes of tungsten ore per year. Couloir anticipates the operation will reach its full nameplate capacity by 2027. Plans for a Phase II expansion in 2026/2027, outlined in the investor presentation, aim to increase annual capacity to approximately 1.2 million tonnes.

Near-Term Catalysts in Focus

Attention now turns to two imminent data points. Quarterly results expected in March are projected to provide the first concrete financial figures since the start of production at Sangdong. Concurrently, market observers will closely monitor whether the mine's operational ramp-up continues to proceed according to schedule. These factors are seen as critical for validating the recent wave of analyst optimism.