Almonty Shares Receive Bullish Target Upgrade Amid Tightening Tungsten Market

DA Davidson lifts Almonty's target to US$25, citing a deepening structural deficit in tungsten supply driven by export restrictions and soaring prices.

A significant reassessment of the global tungsten supply landscape is fueling analyst optimism for Almonty Industries Inc. The latest expression of confidence comes from DA Davidson, which has substantially raised its price target for the company's stock, citing a deepening structural deficit in the critical metal's market.

Analyst Confidence Builds on Supply Concerns

In a move underscoring a shifting market dynamic, DA Davidson lifted its price objective for Almonty to US$25.00 from US$18.00 on Friday, reiterating a "Buy" recommendation. The adjustment stems from updated price assumptions within the firm's valuation model, reflecting a view that the tungsten sector is moving into a pronounced supply crisis.

The bank anticipates the weekly Fastmarkets price benchmark will remain above US$2,000 per metric ton unit. It emphasized that global mine supply is "extremely limited," noting a particular decoupling in prices for defense-grade powder from the base ammonium paratungstate product, partly driven by recent geopolitical events in the Middle East.

DA Davidson's long-term base price assumptions have been raised through approximately 2028. This revision is supported by a price surge of over 160% in 2025 and continued strength in quotations observed at the start of 2026.

A Series of Positive Reassessments

This upgrade forms part of a broader wave of positive analyst revisions. Previously, Couloir Capital increased its fair value estimate by more than 150%, moving from C$7.69 to C$19.30. That firm cited sustained tungsten prices above US$1,000 per metric ton unit and the ongoing ramp-up of the Sangdong mine as key drivers.

DA Davidson itself had already increased its target from US$12.00 to US$18.00 in February. Similarly, B. Riley Financial raised its objective from US$10.00 to US$17.00, also maintaining a "Buy" rating.

As of March 6, Almonty's stock was quoted at US$18.72, with a reported market capitalization of around US$4.21 billion. The equity has advanced approximately 860% since the beginning of the year.

Structural Supply Deficits and Operational Progress

Market experts point to a severely constrained global supply chain as the central catalyst. China, which currently accounts for over 80% of world production, has implemented export restrictions and banned dual-use exports. Furthermore, the United States is expected to prohibit defense-related tungsten imports from China starting in 2027.

According to the report, BMO Capital Markets highlighted that certain Chinese tungsten exports have at times ground to a complete halt. Analysts broadly expect global mine production to remain severely limited until at least 2028—an environment that could provide structural support for commodity prices.

On the operational front, Almonty is focused on advancing its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine. The commencement of active mining operations in December 2025 marked a critical milestone. The company's immediate goal is to bring Phase 1 to full commercial production, followed by initiating a Phase II expansion. This expansion is slated for completion in 2027, potentially raising annual capacity to 1.2 million tonnes.

The article notes additional corporate initiatives, including a planned capacity increase at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, resource definition work at the Sangdong molybdenum project, and progress at the Gertung Browns Lake project in the USA, which could be ready in the second half of 2026.

Regarding financing, Almonty completed two capital raises in the United States during 2025, generating gross proceeds exceeding US$219 million.

Investor attention now turns to the upcoming quarterly report scheduled for March 19. The key question is whether the elevated tungsten prices and the production ramp-up are beginning to translate into measurable financial results.