Almonty Shares Navigate Post-Lockup Volatility Amid Strategic Growth

Almonty CA0203981034

Following an extraordinary performance in 2025, shares of Almonty Industries Inc. are experiencing a period of consolidation. The conclusion of a lock-up agreement tied to a recent capital raise has prompted profit-taking from certain shareholders. This technical pressure coincides with a shift in the shareholder register, even as the company's operational profile strengthens markedly with the commencement of commercial production at its flagship South Korean asset.

On the operational front, developments are decidedly positive. In mid-December 2025, Almonty initiated commercial production at its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea. This pivotal move transitions the company from a project developer to a producing miner.

Key operational highlights include:
* Asset Quality: Sangdong is recognized as one of the few long-life, high-grade tungsten deposits located outside of China.
* Revenue Visibility: A long-term offtake agreement with Sumitomo Electric Industries became effective on January 1, 2026, providing clear forward revenue visibility for the first time.
* Strategic Positioning: This production base establishes Almonty as a relevant supplier of critical minerals to Western defense and semiconductor industries—a segment of growing strategic importance.

Technical Sell-Off Follows Lock-Up Expiration

The recent share price weakness is primarily technical. A 30-day lock-up period, established in connection with a December capital measure, expired on January 8, 2026. This agreement had prevented directors, senior officers, and key employees from selling certain shares, options, and restricted stock units issued as part of that financing.

• Lock-up Details: The period ran for 30 days from December 9, 2025.
• Placement Price: Shares were placed at $6.25 USD each.
• Trading Activity: On January 9, trading volume reached approximately 3.7 million shares.

With the share price trading significantly above the $6.25 placement level, participants in the December financing were sitting on substantial paper gains. The removal of restrictions prompted a swift market reaction, partially relieving the upward pressure built over the course of 2025.

Listed on NASDAQ, the equity declined 7.30% last week, closing Friday at $8.63. This places the stock, which had gained over 840% in 2025, in a clear consolidation phase.

Shareholder Structure Adjusts Post-Financing

In a related development, the reported ownership stake of Deutsche Rohstoff AG has dipped below the 10% threshold, as disclosed in an early-warning report. The decrease is largely attributable to dilution effects from Almonty's December capital increase.

Deutsche Rohstoff continues to hold 20.44 million common shares and CHESS Depository Interests, plus convertible debentures equating to another 5.67 million shares. On an undiluted basis, this represents approximately 7.97% of the company.

Almonty successfully completed its fully subscribed, upsized financing on December 10, 2025, raising over $129 million.

Analyst Sentiment Remains Bullish

Despite the recent pullback, analyst price targets continue to suggest confidence. Both Oppenheimer and DA Davidson maintain a fair value estimate of $12.00 per share. From current levels around $8.63, this implies significant potential upside. DA Davidson reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on December 19, 2025.

The consensus among analysts covering the NASDAQ-listed stock points to an average target range between $10.17 and $11.00 per share. The current price trades roughly 19% below its 52-week high of $10.68.

Expansion Agenda Extends Across Continents

Alongside the Sangdong ramp-up, Almonty is advancing a broader growth agenda. In Portugal, the company operates the Panasqueira mine, where exploration drilling is currently underway on Level 4.

The company expanded its portfolio in November 2025 by acquiring the Gentung Browns Lake tungsten project in Montana, marking its first direct entry into the U.S. market.

To secure funding for future growth projects, including the Montana asset, Almonty appointed Guillaume Wiesenbach de Lamaziere as Chief Development Officer on January 6, 2026.

Key Price Levels and Forward Catalysts

For near-term price action, several key levels are in focus:

• $6.25: The December placement price serves as a historical reference floor.
• $8.63–$8.90: The current trading range where additional supply from the expired lock-up is being absorbed.
• $12.00: The general vicinity of analyst price targets.

The near-term trajectory will largely depend on how quickly the market absorbs the shares freed from the lock-up restrictions. Additional catalysts are expected from the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, due by the end of March, and the planned production ramp-up at Sangdong throughout the first half of 2026.