Almonty Shares Leap on Double Catalyst: Sangdong Production Start and Aggressive Analyst Upgrade

Almonty Industries shares jump 12.4% as Sangdong mine begins processing ore and DA Davidson doubles price target to US$33, citing operational and financial catalysts.

Investors in Almonty Industries got a double dose of good news on Friday, sending the tungsten producer's stock soaring 12.40% to close at C$23.38. The catalyst? A one-two punch of operational and analytical validation: the company’s flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea officially began processing ore, and DA Davidson nearly doubled its price target on the stock to US$33, reaffirming a Buy rating.

The mine’s transition from construction to production on July 1 marks a pivotal shift. Almonty announced it had started the processing plant in Gangwon province, feeding stockpiled ore through the system and producing saleable tungsten concentrate. The company entered the ramp-up with a substantial buffer — roughly 139,700 tonnes of ore containing an average of 0.25% tungsten trioxide, built up from 120,000 tonnes at the end of the first quarter and an additional 19,700 tonnes added in Q2. Management has deliberately started with lower-grade material, expecting grades to improve as the process stabilises.

Sangdong’s status as one of the world’s largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits gives the project a geopolitical edge, particularly as Western industrial and defence supply chains seek to reduce reliance on China. That context amplifies the significance of every operational milestone, and the market reaction reflected as much.

Financial turnaround underpins the optimism

Almonty’s Q1 results, released on May 11, paint a picture of operational recovery that bolsters the case for Sangdong’s potential. Revenue surged 221% to US$25.4 million, driven by the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and a sharp rise in the spot price of ammonium paratungstate (APT). Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive US$6.1 million from a loss of US$2.4 million a year earlier, while operating cash flow turned from negative US$4.4 million to positive US$9.7 million. The net loss narrowed sharply to US$5.3 million, or US$0.02 per share, compared with a US$34.6 million loss in the prior-year period. Almonty ended the quarter with US$259.9 million in cash and US$169.5 million in working capital, providing a solid foundation for the Sangdong ramp-up.

DA Davidson’s July 10 upgrade — hiking the target from US$25 to US$33 just weeks after setting the previous target — cited the move into actual ore processing as a structural improvement that should lead to more stable production, a broader revenue base, and stronger cash flow once operations mature. The bank also flagged Almonty’s solid balance sheet and record-high tungsten prices as tailwinds. The upgrade came a day after Bank of America Securities reaffirmed its own positive stance, adding to a wave of analyst optimism since the processing plant started.

Volatility and execution risks remain front and centre

Despite the bullish signals, the stock still trades nearly 30% below its 52-week high of C$33.35, reached in April. The 50-day moving average of C$25.40 also remains out of reach, underscoring the choppy trajectory. The annualised 30-day volatility sits at almost 97%, a figure that highlights the market’s jittery reaction to each operational update.

That nervousness has roots beyond the headline milestones. Almonty continues to burn cash at a pace that keeps profitability elusive, leaving it dependent on new financing — raising the spectre of dilution and growing debt if the ramp-up doesn’t quickly translate into sustained earnings. In June, the company placed convertible notes with a 2.25% coupon and a 2031 maturity. After underwriters fully exercised their over-allotment option, the deal raised a total of US$800 million. The initial conversion price is around US$27.40 per share, well above Friday’s close, which offers some protection but also hangs over the stock as a potential overhang.

While the gap between the current share price and DA Davidson’s new US$33 target signals upside potential, the path depends entirely on execution at Sangdong. Investors will be watching production updates and concentrate delivery data closely. The next few weeks will determine how quickly the 139,700-tonne ore stockpile can be turned into cash — and whether the mine can live up to the lofty expectations that now drive the stock.