Almonty Shares Face Technical Headwinds Following Capital Raise

Almonty CA0203981034

The equity of Almonty Industries is currently experiencing a pronounced downward trend. This movement is not being driven by fresh operational setbacks but is primarily the result of technical factors stemming from a capital increase finalized in December 2025. A key catalyst is the expiration of an associated lock-up period, which is now unleashing additional selling pressure on the market.

Amid these technical challenges, Almonty has reported significant operational progress. The company has initiated commercial production at its tungsten-rich Sangdong mine in South Korea, a site considered a project of strategic importance.

The ramp-up to full production is scheduled for the first half of 2026. Market observers view achieving this timeline as a critical step in de-risking the company's profile, as it signifies a transition from the development phase to becoming a cash-generating producer.

Lock-Up Expiration Triggers Profit-Taking

The conclusion of the lock-up period tied to last year's financing round has made a substantial number of previously restricted shares available for trading. A portion of the investors who participated in that round are now capitalizing on their positions to secure profits.

This activity has created a noticeable imbalance:
* A significantly increased supply of shares is meeting the existing market demand.
* Consequently, the share price is facing considerable downward pressure.
* The present decline is viewed largely as a technical overhang rather than a reaction to deteriorating fundamental business metrics.

In essence, this wave of selling is a direct and anticipated outcome of the capital measure and its attached restrictions now coming to an end.

Shareholder Composition Shifts Post-Financing

The December 2025 capital raise, which injected over USD 129 million into the company, has also led to a measurable shift in its ownership structure.

Key developments include:
* The issuance of new shares has diluted the holdings of existing major stakeholders.
* As a result, the stake held by Deutsche Rohstoff AG has fallen below the 10 percent threshold.
* On an undiluted basis, Deutsche Rohstoff's interest now stands below 7.97 percent.

Thus, the financing activity has not only provided the company with liquidity but has also reconfigured its register of significant shareholders.

The current market sentiment is being shaped by a confluence of factors:
* The expiry of the lock-up agreement following the December 2025 capital increase.
* Profit-taking and associated selling pressure from the investor cohort involved in that raise.
* Dilution effects that have materially reduced major shareholdings.
* The simultaneous achievement of a pivotal operational milestone at the Sangdong mine.

Looking ahead, the market must first absorb the additional share supply following the lock-up expiry. Meaningful new catalysts for the stock price are anticipated from two upcoming events: the release of financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, and further updates on the Sangdong production ramp-up throughout the first half of 2026.