Almonty’s US Tungsten Push Gains Urgency as Sangdong Losses Test Investor Patience

China's export curbs push tungsten prices above $3,000/MTU, but Almonty posts CAD 5.3M net loss. Sangdong mine shows operational strength; Montana project targets 2026 production.

The tungsten market’s geopolitical fever is Almonty Industries’ windfall, but the company’s latest earnings serve as a sobering counterpoint. While China’s export curbs have driven spot prices above $3,000 per metric tonne unit in Rotterdam, Almonty posted a net loss of CAD 5.3 million on revenue of CAD 25.4 million for the first quarter of 2026. The paradox of a surging stock and persistent red ink underscores the high-stakes transition the miner is navigating.

Sangdong, the South Korean mine that underpins Almonty’s western supply narrative, generated positive operating cash flow of CAD 9.7 million in the quarter, with an operating margin of 31%. That cash generation helped offset upfront costs as the operation ramps up. The deposit’s ore grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide—well above the global average—keeps production costs low, and management has already outlined a Phase 2 expansion to 1.2 million tonnes per year starting in 2027. Management’s recent appearances at the Critical Minerals Institute Summit and the Bank of America Metals Conference in mid-May reinforced the message that Sangdong is a strategic asset for defence, semiconductor and aerospace supply chains.

An additional demand driver is emerging from the solar sector. New applications such as tungsten wire for photovoltaic panels are expected to add 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes of annual consumption, further tightening a market already strained by Chinese dominance.

Almonty is now accelerating its North American pivot. The company has fully acquired the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana and targets first production in the second half of 2026, with an annual capacity of 140,000 metric tonne units. The timing dovetails with the price rally, offering a potential second revenue stream just as Sangdong approaches stable output.

Wall Street is betting big on the combined story. All eight analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, with Bank of America forecasting a leap in revenue to CAD 670 million this year and CAD 1.32 billion next. However, the valuation range is extraordinarily wide—estimates of fair value stretch from CAD 1 to CAD 58 per share—reflecting how much hinges on Sangdong hitting its production targets and the Montana project coming online without delays.

The equity has already priced in a transform. Over twelve months the shares surged roughly 600%, including a 114% year-to-date gain. But the rally has stalled: the stock closed at CAD 25.80 on one recent Friday, then slipped to CAD 25.36 in a later session, marking a 21% decline from its April all-time high of CAD 32.07. The 50-day moving average sits at CAD 26.04, and the relative strength index at 70 suggests short-term overbought conditions. A sustained break above that average could reignite the advance toward the 52-week high.

For now, the market is waiting. The second half of 2026 will reveal whether Sangdong can deliver the production stability needed to justify the current valuation—and whether Montana can add a second engine before the tungsten price cycle cools.