Almonty's Tungsten Windfall: Revenue Triples, Cash Flow Turns Positive – So Why Did the Stock Drop 12%?

Almonty's Q1 revenue surged 221% as tungsten prices tripled; stock dipped 12% on profit-taking. Sangdong ramp-up and U.S. ban on Chinese tungsten set stage.

Almonty Industries is living the tungsten boom in real time. Its Q1 numbers are the stuff of turnaround dreams: revenue up 221% to $25.4 million, operating cash flow of $9.7 million after a loss a year earlier, and a net loss that shrank to C$5.3 million. Yet on May 13, the Toronto-listed shares slumped nearly 12% – a classic case of profit-taking after a 122% run since January.

The culprit behind the explosive sales growth is ammonium paratungstate (APT), the key tungsten intermediate. Prices have more than tripled from C$862.50 at the start of the year to roughly C$3,140 per metric tonne unit by early May, according to Diamond Equity Research. That price lever overwhelmed even a slight dip in production volumes at the company's Panasqueira mine in Portugal. The operating mine result from the asset jumped to C$13.0 million from just C$0.8 million in the prior-year quarter.

Higher administrative costs – C$7.1 million, driven by rising salaries and legal fees – trimmed the bottom line. But the cash flow inflection is the headline: the miner finished the quarter with C$259.9 million in cash and equivalents and working capital of C$169.5 million, providing a sturdy cushion for the critical ramp-up ahead.

That ramp-up centres on Sangdong, Almonty's flagship mine in South Korea. On May 21, the company will release the first production data from Phase 1, which is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and yield roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Within weeks, shareholders will vote on Phase 2 – a move that would double capacity by 2027. Once fully ramped, Sangdong is expected to supply more than 80% of the world’s tungsten output outside China.

The strategic case is reinforced by geopolitics. China has throttled exports through a strict licensing system, and from January 2027, U.S. defense contractors will be barred from using Chinese-sourced tungsten. Almonty's South Korean facility is tailor-made to fill that gap.

Analysts have responded by lifting their targets. Alliance Global set a new price objective of $26.25, Bank of America raised to $23, and DA Davidson sees $25, while Oppenheimer stands at $19 and B. Riley at $23. Diamond Equity now models earnings per share of $0.14 for the current quarter (up from $0.12) and $1.23 for fiscal 2027, underpinned by an average APT price of $2,850 for 2026.

Alongside the operational milestones, Almonty is strengthening its management team. Jorge Beristain will step in as chief financial officer on June 1, replacing Brian Fox. His commodity-sector experience is expected to steer the company through the next growth phase. CEO Lewis Black has also been vocal about industry-wide challenges, using a recent presentation titled "No Team, No Tungsten, No Time: The Human Capital Crisis in Mining" to highlight the talent shortage that threatens global supply chains.

Despite the pullback, the stock remains up 108.81% year-to-date, closing Thursday at C$25.12. A discounted cash flow analysis puts fair value at C$43.69, suggesting the shares trade about 42% below intrinsic worth. Yet that kind of upside assumption depends on flawless execution: Sangdong’s production must hit its targets, Panasqueira must stay steady, and APT prices must hold their remarkable levels. Any hiccup will punish an equity that, even after the correction, is priced for perfection.