Almonty’s Tungsten Windfall Meets Market Skepticism as Sangdong Ramp-Up Looms

Almonty's revenue jumps 221% as tungsten prices quadruple, but profit-taking and rising costs drag stock down 10% in a week. New CFO appointed amid expansion.

The numbers coming out of Almonty Industries are eye-catching by any measure. Revenue has surged 221% in the first quarter, the price of its key product has roughly quadrupled since January, and the company has finally swung to positive operating cash flow. Yet the stock ended last week at C$24.02, down more than 10% on the week and around 25% below the April peak of C$32.07. That gap between operational strength and market sentiment is the story investors are trying to read.

The driver behind Almonty’s explosion in profitability is the ferocious rally in ammonium paratungstate (APT), the benchmark tungsten compound. From around $862 per tonne in January, APT in Rotterdam has rocketed above $3,140 — a gain of more than 265% in just four months. Over the past twelve months the increase is roughly 900%. China’s stranglehold on global tungsten supply, tightened further by export restrictions from Beijing, has created a structural shortage that western defence and high-tech industries cannot easily bypass. Tungsten is critical in armour-piercing munitions, rocket nozzles, and cutting tools; there is no ready substitute.

Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea is being positioned as a cornerstone of the west’s effort to build independent supply chains. The first phase of development is already producing, targeting an annual output of 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate, with a second phase slated to double capacity from 2027. That timeline aligns neatly with expected new procurement rules that would bar tungsten from China or Russia from western defence contracts. The geopolitical tailwind is unmistakable.

Yet for all that promise, the market has been in a profit-taking mood. The stock has shed nearly 17% over the past 30 days, leaving it just below its 50-day moving average of C$26.27. The relative strength index sits at 44, suggesting the bears have the upper hand in the near term. The annualised volatility of over 97% means wild swings are the norm; the shares have more than quadrupled since May 2025, and even after the pullback they remain nearly 100% higher year-to-date.

The latest quarterly release provided the immediate trigger for selling. Mining income came in at $13 million, but higher administrative costs ate into the gains. The balance sheet is robust — roughly $260 million in cash — which gives management ample runway to fund the expansion. But until Sangdong reaches full commercial production, the stock remains a leveraged bet on tungsten prices, and that makes it vulnerable to any whiff of a slowdown in the rally.

To steer the company through this capital-intensive phase, Almonty has appointed a new chief financial officer. Jorge Beristain, a former Wall Street analyst at Deutsche Bank, will take over on June 1, 2026, replacing Brian Fox who stepped down immediately. Analysts have responded positively: Bank of America rates the stock a buy with a target of $23 per share, while Alliance Global lifted its target to $26.25 from $19.25. Diamond Equity, in sponsored research, raised its 2026 earnings estimate to $0.72 per share.

The coming months will test whether Almonty can execute on its production targets. The Sangdong ramp-up is the single most important catalyst, and the company now has both the cash and a proven finance chief to see it through. For long-term investors, the story remains intact: a strategic metal, a mine in a friendly jurisdiction, and a product that western buyers will increasingly need — just as the supply from China dries up. The market’s current caution may simply be the pause before the next leg higher.