Almonty’s Tungsten Play Intensifies: Convertible Note Shock and Shareholder Vote Underscore a Supply Chain Pivot

Almonty stock fell 30% after $700M note, but Sangdong tungsten output, China export limits & US defense deadline offer strategic upside.

Almonty Industries holds its annual general meeting today in Toronto, but the governance routine — re?electing seven directors, confirming auditor Zeifmans LLP — is unfolding against a backdrop far from ordinary. Shareholders who watched the stock shed roughly a fifth of its value in the past week are being asked to back management’s continuity at a moment when the company’s financing strategy and geopolitical timing are colliding.

The sell?off began on June 4, when Almonty unveiled a $700 million convertible note due 2031 with a 2.25% coupon. The institutional tranche was oversubscribed; retail investors, however, headed for the exits. The stock slumped to CAD 23.29, roughly 30% below its 52?week high of CAD 33.35 reached on April 17. With the 50?day moving average at CAD 26.70 and the relative strength index at 41.1, the technical picture is bruised but not broken.

Capital structure with guardrails

The dilution fears are real, but the deal’s architecture includes meaningful buffers. Roughly $83 million of the proceeds are earmarked for capped?call transactions that limit dilution if the notes are converted, with a cap price of CAD 41.36 per share — well above the current level. Another $50 million goes toward refinancing existing debt, leaving about $543 million for working capital, general corporate purposes, and potential acquisitions.

That cash is not speculative. It funds a mine that is already producing. Almonty has completed Phase 1 of its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which is now processing roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, expected in 2027, would double capacity to around 1.2 million tonnes of ore and push output to approximately 4,600 tonnes. The mine’s projected life exceeds 45 years, and its average ore grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide is about three times the global average.

Geopolitical tailwinds sharpen the thesis

What makes the current pullback particularly notable is the timing of external catalysts. In December 2025, China confirmed that only 15 companies would be permitted to export tungsten during 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense faces a January 1, 2027 deadline after which it may not procure tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea. That deadline is less than seven months away. Building a mine takes years; Sangdong already exists.

Canaccord Genuity’s April 2026 analysis projects global tungsten demand rising from roughly 143,000 tonnes in 2025 to about 210,000 tonnes by 2035, with non?Chinese supply constrained by a thin development pipeline, aging operations, and declining ore grades. Binding offtake agreements, including long?term delivery commitments for tungsten oxide into U.S. defense applications, give Almonty revenue visibility that most junior miners cannot claim.

Risks that demand respect

None of this means the path is smooth. Tungsten prices could weaken; political and permitting risks exist in Portugal, South Korea, and elsewhere; operational hiccups at Sangdong are not hypothetical. The stock’s annualized 30?day volatility stands above 100%, a number that will test even seasoned investors. The convertible note overhang will remain an active factor in every trading session until conversion or maturity in 2031. Until the share price reclaims the 50?day average, the financing shock has not fully digested.

Yet the longer?term context is striking. Despite the 18% weekly slide, Almonty shares are still up nearly 94% year?to?date and about 378% over the past twelve months. The 200?day moving average at CAD 16.76 underscores how quickly the fundamental picture has shifted.

What comes next

The AGM itself offers no immediate catalyst — formal voting results on director elections and the auditor’s reappointment will come only after the meeting. But the alignment of a fully subscribed institutional financing, an operating mine with a fast?approaching geopolitical deadline, and a management team seeking shareholder endorsement tells a story of strategic placement rather than disarray. The sell?off, while painful, may well be remembered as a case of short?term mechanism colliding with long?term structural value — provided tungsten prices hold and Sangdong’s ramp?up stays on track.