Almonty’s Tungsten Moment: Analyst Upgrade, EU Reserve Plan, and Production Inflection Converge

Almonty Industries jumps over 600% as tungsten gains strategic importance; analyst raises price target to US$26.25 on start of Sangdong production and EU critical mineral reserve plans.

Almonty Industries has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past year, swelling from a development-stage miner to a company valued at roughly US$5.2 billion. The stock on the Toronto Stock Exchange closed Friday at C$25.80, a gain of more than 610% from a year ago. The rally reflects a convergence of company-specific milestones, analyst enthusiasm, and a shifting geopolitical backdrop that is elevating tungsten’s strategic importance.

The most immediate driver came from Alliance Global, whose analyst Jake Sekelsky raised his price target on Almonty to US$26.25 from US$19.25 while reaffirming a buy rating. The move followed the start of commercial production at Almonty’s flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea in March. Among the six analysts covering the stock, five rate it a buy or strong buy, and one recommends selling. Other targets include US$23 from B. Riley and US$25 from DA Davidson. On the Nasdaq, Almonty last changed hands at US$18.66, leaving room to the new target.

But the bullish view is not purely company-specific. The European Union is reportedly preparing its first strategic reserve for critical minerals, with tungsten targeted as a central component. The metal’s use in defence, aerospace, and industrial applications has become more pressing as NATO allies boost military spending and seek to reduce reliance on Chinese supply. Almonty’s Sangdong mine, one of the largest tungsten deposits outside China, positions it as a key beneficiary of that decoupling narrative.

On the operational front, first-quarter revenue surged 221% to US$25.4 million, though start-up costs at Sangdong kept net income in the red at a loss of US$5.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA was US$6.1 million, and operating cash flow turned positive at US$9.7 million – a sharp reversal from the negative C$4.4 million in the same period last year. Almonty ended the quarter with US$259.9 million in cash and working capital of US$169.5 million, giving it ample runway for further tungsten-sector acquisitions.

Structurally, the company is also reorienting its geographic footprint. Almonty is moving its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, bringing it closer to its Gentung tungsten project and facilitating direct access to North American defence customers. Washington’s push for domestic mineral independence dovetails with Almonty’s strategy, and the relocation underscores its ambitions as a supplier to the U.S. military-industrial base. The company also retains mining assets in Portugal and Spain.

On the technical side, the stock’s momentum has pushed the relative strength index to 70.4, a level often considered overbought. The current TSX price sits just below the 50-day moving average of C$26.04 but still 65% above the 200-day line. The indicative stock lending rate has climbed to 5.78%, up 1.45 percentage points in a week, indicating growing institutional interest – though elevated rates can also signal short-term volatility. The shares are roughly 20% below the 52-week high of C$32.07.

The near-term calendar is packed with catalysts. The Nasdaq will be closed Monday for Memorial Day, but TSX trading continues. Market watchers are awaiting details from the EU on the size and timeline of its proposed critical-minerals reserve. At Almonty, the focus is on converting Sangdong’s production into initial concentrate sales, which the company expects to appear in upcoming quarterly reports. On June 1, a new management team takes over, a transition management has framed as part of the next growth phase.

With tungsten spot prices at record levels and a supportive policy environment in both Europe and North America, Almonty’s challenge now is to execute on the ramp-up and prove that its elevated valuation – built on promise and multiple tailwinds – can be sustained by tangible earnings. The next few weeks will provide an early test.