Almonty’s Tungsten Boom Meets a Brutal Letdown: Cash Flows Turn Positive, Stock Still Drops 12%

Tungsten miner's strong first-quarter results fail to support stock after 122% year-to-date rally, as profit-taking and valuation concerns overshadow record-high tungsten prices.

The paradox of Almonty Industries this week is hard to ignore. The tungsten miner posted a 221% revenue surge, turned comfortably cash-flow positive, and brought Fidelity onto its shareholder register — yet the stock suffered its worst single-day rout in months. On May 13, Toronto-listed shares closed at C$26.74, shedding 11.66% after touching a daily high of C$30.55 and sliding as low as C$26.68. The selloff came straight after the release of strong first-quarter results, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift when a stock has already run up 122% since the start of the year.

The trading session highlighted a market that is increasingly nervous about valuations, even as the underlying commodity picture brightens. The retreat appeared to be classic profit-taking against a backdrop of record-high tungsten prices and a string of bullish company announcements. For a name that lives on metal prices, project milestones and geopolitical tailwinds, the pullback serves as a reminder that good news alone is no longer enough to keep the bid firm.

Operating cash flow finally flips

Almonty’s Q1 numbers, released before the selloff, painted a fundamentally different picture from the stock’s performance. Revenue jumped to US$25.4 million from US$7.9 million a year earlier, powered entirely by the surge in ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices and stronger production from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at US$6.1 million, compared with a loss of US$2 million in the prior-year period. Even more notable: operating cash flow came in at US$9.7 million, a milestone that shifts the company’s narrative from venture-stage capital consumer to a self-funding producer.

The mine-level result from Panasqueira soared to C$13.0 million, up from just C$0.8 million. Almonty still reported a net loss of US$5.3 million, but that was sharply improved from US$34.6 million a year ago and was largely driven by non-cash items. Write-downs on embedded derivatives and warrants — triggered by the rising share price during the quarter — added US$8.4 million in paper costs. General and administrative expenses climbed to C$7.1 million, reflecting higher salaries, legal fees and investor relations spending.

Tungsten’s parabolic move

The engine behind the financial turnaround is the extraordinary rally in tungsten prices. APT, the key intermediate product, has surged from roughly US$862.50 per metric ton unit (MTU) at the start of January to around US$3,140 per MTU on May 8 — a gain of more than 200% in less than five months. While some of that move may reflect short-term supply tightness and speculative positioning, the structural forces are clear: tungsten is becoming increasingly critical for defense, industrial machinery and semiconductor supply chains.

Tungsten hexafluoride, a precursor used in chip manufacturing, is particularly sensitive. Chinese export controls have tightened the supply valve, and Japanese producers have already warned major memory makers such as Samsung and SK Hynix of potential disruptions by mid-year. Almonty, as one of the few non-Chinese tungsten suppliers with a scalable pipeline, stands to benefit directly from this decoupling.

Sangdong takes center stage

Phase 1 of the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which was formally commissioned on March 17, is now producing at an annual processing capacity of around 640,000 tonnes of ore, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The next expansion, slated for completion in 2027, is designed to lift processing to 1.2 million tonnes per year and output to roughly 4,600 tonnes of concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong could supply as much as 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

CEO Lewis Black has been using the Q1 results to showcase the company’s progress on the conference circuit. He presented at BofA Securities’ Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference in Miami earlier this week and is scheduled to speak at the Critical Minerals Institute Summit in Toronto on Thursday, where he will address supply-chain security and the industry’s skilled-labor shortage.

Fidelity takes a stake, finance chief departs

In a major vote of confidence, Fidelity disclosed a 6.5% stake in Almonty, corresponding to 18.28 million shares. The institutional backing is significant for a company transitioning from development-stage to a producing tungsten supplier outside China. It also provides a cushion of credibility as Almonty navigates the operational ramp-up.

The management suite is changing at the same time. Jorge Beristain, formerly a senior metals and mining analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities and most recently at Ryerson Holding, is set to take over as chief financial officer on June 1. He replaces Brian Fox, who has left with immediate effect. In the interim, Chief Development Officer Guillaume de Lamaziere will handle financial oversight. The transition comes at a delicate moment, with Sangdong’s expansion and cost control both under close watch.

Analysts are shifting their price targets accordingly. Alliance Global lifted its target to C$26.25 from C$19.25 on May 13, while D.A. Davidson reiterated its buy rating the same day. Diamond Equity Research, in a paid report from the issuer, noted a fair-value estimate of C$31.80 per share, though that figure depends on successful execution of the company’s plans.

The balancing act ahead

Almonty ended the first quarter with US$259.9 million in cash and US$169.5 million in working capital, giving it ample runway to finish the Sangdong ramp-up. The next concrete milestone for investors is Beristain’s official start on June 1. Until then, the stock is caught between two powerful forces: a commodity market that is screaming higher and a shareholder base that is taking profits after a staggering run. The proof of stability will come in successive quarters of positive cash flow — and in how the market reacts when the next piece of good news lands.