Almonty's Tungsten Bonanza Faces Investor Chill as Sangdong Readies for Commercial Scale-Up

Despite Q1 revenue tripling to CAD 25.4M and soaring tungsten prices, Almonty shares fell 10.64% weekly as investors take profits; Sangdong mine and analyst upgrades signal long-term growth.

The numbers coming out of Almonty Industries are nothing short of staggering, yet the market is hitting the sell button. The tungsten producer posted first-quarter revenue of CAD 25.4 million, more than triple the CAD 7.9 million from a year earlier, while income from mining operations surged to CAD 13.0 million. The stock, however, closed the week at CAD 24.02, shedding 4.68% on Friday and dragging the weekly loss to 10.64%.

The disconnect boils down to profit-taking after a run that has left many early investors sitting on life-changing gains. The share is still up 99.67% year-to-date and has soared 545.70% over the past twelve months. A consolidation of that magnitude was arguably overdue.

APT Prices Fuel the Fire

The catalyst behind the revenue explosion is the relentless climb in ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices, which have rocketed from roughly USD 862 per tonne in January to over USD 3,140 in early May. That price trajectory is transforming Almonty's margin profile at its Portuguese Panasqueira mine, where stable production finally positions the company as an operating cash generator rather than a pure development story.

Operating cash flow flipped firmly into positive territory during the quarter, and the balance sheet now holds nearly CAD 260 million in cash to fund the next phase of growth. Production costs did rise to CAD 11.8 million from CAD 6.6 million a year ago, but the dramatic expansion in top-line revenue has kept margins robust.

Sangdong Takes Centre Stage

All eyes are now on South Korea, where Almonty officially commenced the first phase of its Sangdong mine in March. The initial processing plant can handle roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. A second expansion, targeted for 2027, would double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year.

Sangdong is more than just a growth project — it is a strategic asset in an era of supply-chain realignment. New Western procurement rules expected to take effect in 2027 will effectively ban tungsten sourced from China or Russia for defence contracts. Almonty is positioning itself as the go-to supplier for the US industrial and defence sectors, highlighted by its planned relocation of corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana.

Analyst Upgrades Accelerate

The operational momentum has drawn a flurry of analyst upgrades. Sphene Capital reiterated its "Buy" rating on May 15 and nearly doubled its price target to CAD 37.40 from CAD 20.10, citing stronger quarterly results and a broadening operational base. The valuation model now incorporates Sangdong, Panasqueira, the Gentung and Los Santos assets, with the Valtreixal development project discounted.

Bank of America chimed in with a "Buy" and a USD 23 target, while Alliance Global lifted its target to USD 26.25 from USD 19.25. Diamond Equity, in commissioned research, raised its 2026 earnings estimate to USD 0.72 per share. The analyst community clearly sees more upside than the market is currently pricing in.

New CFO to Steer Growth

To manage this expansion phase, Almonty has tapped Jorge Beristain for the chief financial officer role, effective June 1. Beristain, a former Deutsche Bank analyst covering metals and mining on Wall Street, replaces Brian Fox, who stepped down immediately. The appointment signals a sharper focus on financial discipline and investor communication as the company transitions from developer to producer.

The market may be taking a breather, but the underlying narrative remains intact. Almonty now must execute — prove that Sangdong can ramp up smoothly and deliver on its production targets just as Western buyers begin scrambling for non-Chinese tungsten. With a cash-rich balance sheet, a well-connected new CFO, and a mine that sits at the centre of the critical-minerals conversation, the next few months will determine whether the current pullback is a speed bump or the start of a deeper retreat.