Almonty's Triple Tuesday: Convertible Settlement, AGM, and Macro Catalysts Test Shareholder Resolve

Almonty Industries closes $700M convertible note and holds AGM as stock plunges 20% after near-triple-digit gains; US inflation and Bank of Canada decision loom.

Tuesday is shaping up as a pivotal moment for Almonty Industries. The tungsten producer will close its heavily oversubscribed $700 million convertible note issuance and hold its annual general meeting in Toronto on the same day, while US inflation figures and a Bank of Canada rate decision hover on Wednesday. The confluence has already rattled shareholders — the stock shed more than 20% on Friday to end at C$22.70, wiping out a chunk of the year's near-triple-digit gains.

The convertible note, carrying a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031, comes with a greenshoe option that could add another $100 million within 13 days. The conversion price is set at roughly $27.40 per share, representing a 32.5% premium to the reference price. Management has layered in a capped-call transaction with a ceiling of $41.36 per share — an implied 100% premium — meaning dilution protection fades once the stock climbs above that level. For a name with annualised 30-day volatility above 100%, investors are pricing in precisely that risk.

Net proceeds are expected to reach about $675.9 million, or up to $772.7 million if the greenshoe is fully exercised. Around $83 million will fund the capped-call structure, $50 million refinances existing debt, and the lion's share — roughly $543 million — is earmarked for working capital and general corporate purposes, "including potential acquisitions." The new war chest arrives as Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea and Panasqueira mine in Portugal drive revenue growth: first-quarter 2026 sales hit $25.4 million, up 221% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million.

The selloff has pulled the stock below its 50-day moving average of C$26.64 and the 100-day average, though it remains well above the 200-day line at C$16.67. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 39.3, close to oversold territory but not quite there. Despite the weekly rout, the shares are still up roughly 89% year-to-date and nearly 376% over the past twelve months — a reminder that Friday's drop came after a prolonged run that peaked at a 52-week high of C$33.35 in April.

Tuesday's AGM will vote on routine matters — setting board size at seven, electing directors, and ratifying the auditor — but the timing amplifies scrutiny. Should the convertible settle as planned on June 9, the next milestone is Russell Index inclusion on June 29, which typically drives forced buying from ETFs and index funds. For now, the market's focus is on execution: whether the fresh capital is deployed fast enough to sustain the growth story without further diluting the equity base. The first clue arrives within hours of Tuesday's close.