Almonty's Sangdong Deal Extended to 21 Years as Soaring Tungsten Prices Reshape Western Supply Dynamics

Amid Chinese export curbs, Almonty expands Sangdong tungsten offtake to 21 years, 4.41M MTU, with a price floor, boosting contracted revenue to ~$490M.

Western buyers scrambling to secure non-Chinese tungsten supplies handed Almonty Industries a rare multi-decade revenue anchor as the company expanded its offtake agreement for the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The revision, negotiated with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP), a Pennsylvania-based unit of the Plansee Group and a key supplier to the US defense industry, comes against a backdrop of Chinese export restrictions that have sent ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices from roughly $331 per metric tonne unit (MTU) at the start of 2025 to around $1,900 per MTU by February 2026. A US Department of Defense procurement ban on Chinese tungsten, set to take effect in 2027, has further intensified demand for reliable alternative sources.

Under the amended deal, the contract term stretches from 15 to 21 years, while the committed volume jumps 40% to 4.41 million MTU. Pricing terms improve by roughly 6.3%, and GTP has agreed to a floor of $183 per MTU with no ceiling, allowing Almonty to capture future price gains directly. The accord covers about 90% of Phase I production at Sangdong, with a minimum annual offtake of 210,000 MTU. Almonty expects the changes to add at least $30 million in annual revenue, bringing total contracted revenue at current APT prices to approximately $490 million. Over the full life of the agreement, the incremental uplift amounts to roughly $630 million. Phase II, which would double mine capacity, remains outside the scope of this amendment and represents a separate growth option.

The Sangdong operation itself began processing ore on July 1, 2026, and is still ramping up to full Phase I capacity. The mine boasts a historic site with existing infrastructure, which has accelerated the restart, and its ore grade of 0.44% tungsten trioxide is more than double the global average of 0.18%. Molybdenum, a byproduct, is sold separately to SeAH M&S. The project was financed in part with $75.1 million from Germany's KfW IPEX-Bank.

Despite the fundamental heft of the expanded offtake, the stock has struggled to hold recent highs. After closing at C$22.19 the previous day, Almonty shares slipped 2.43% to C$21.65 in intraday trading. The stock now sits 35.08% below its 52-week peak of C$33.35, reached on April 17, 2026, though it has surged 79.97% year-to-date and an eye-popping 225.56% over the past twelve months. The 50-day moving average of C$25.02 stands 13.47% above the current price, while the 200-day moving average of C$18.88 offers a 14.65% buffer below. The relative strength index of 43.1 signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and the annualized 30-day volatility of nearly 98% underscores the stock's wide trading range. Market capitalisation stands at roughly €3.75 billion.

Analysts remain bullish. DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating on July 15, 2026, with a price target of C$33. A discounted cash flow analysis by Simply Wall St pegged fair value at C$60.09, implying the stock—then trading at C$22.19—was undervalued by 63.1%; the consensus analyst target cited in that report stood at C$27.59. Almonty continues to post losses, reporting a net deficit of C$132.6 million.

Geopolitical tailwinds add to the strategic narrative. The European Union is reportedly planning to stockpile tungsten as one of its first critical raw materials for joint strategic reserves, according to Reuters. China controls roughly 80% of global tungsten output, leaving Sangdong as one of the few meaningful production sites outside its orbit. The global tungsten market is projected to expand from $5.58 billion in 2025 to $12.44 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 8.14%. With a two-decade offtake contract locked in at favourable terms, Almonty has positioned itself squarely in the path of that growth—and at the centre of Western efforts to de-risk critical mineral supply chains.