Almonty's Sangdong Breakthrough and Record Tungsten Prices Open Window to $33 Analyst Target

Tungsten concentrate prices soar over 550% in 18 months; Almonty's South Korean mine begins production, boosting shares 94% YTD amid Western supply chain diversification.

The tungsten market is in uncharted territory, and Almonty Industries is riding the wave. The price of tungsten concentrate has surged from around $900 per metric tonne unit at the start of 2025 to more than $3,100 today — a gain of over 550% in 18 months. That alone would be enough to catch investors' attention, but the company added a second catalyst on Friday: the first concrete steps toward production at its long-awaited Sangdong mine in South Korea.

Almonty shares jumped 12.4% on the day to close at C$23.38 in Toronto, leaving the stock up 94.35% since the start of the year and more than 200% over the past twelve months. The rally was fuelled by an aggressive price target increase from DA Davidson, which on July 10 lifted its target to $33 from $25 while maintaining a buy rating. The investment bank cited the transition at Sangdong from construction to actual ore processing as the key driver, noting that the switch should deliver more stable output, a broader revenue base, and better cash flows once operations mature. The upgrade came just one day after Bank of America Securities reaffirmed its own bullish stance, capping a wave of favourable analyst calls since the processing plant began commissioning on July 1.

Sangdong’s progress is unfolding against a backdrop of tightening global tungsten supply. China controls roughly 80% of the world’s production, and on January 6, 2026, Beijing expanded its list of controlled dual-use goods, further restricting exports of the metal. Tungsten is no niche commodity: it is essential for armour-piercing munitions, turbine blades, and semiconductor fabrication, which has made it a matter of national security for both Washington and Brussels. Almonty’s Korean mine is being positioned as one of the largest tungsten sources outside China, and the first concentrate is already being produced, offering a tangible demonstration that Western supply chains can diversify away from Chinese dominance.

The U.S. government is reinforcing that push through "Project Vault," a $12 billion initiative led by VaultCo LLC and backed by the Export-Import Bank to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals. Former Pentagon official Brett Lambert was recently appointed project lead, underscoring the administration’s seriousness. Additional demand is coming from military programmes such as Canada’s recent order of up to 12 submarines from TKMS, a deal worth as much as C$60 billion that will require vast quantities of high-strength alloys.

Yet for all the bullish signals, Almonty’s stock remains a high-wire act. Despite Friday’s surge, the shares are still nearly 30% below their 52-week high of C$33.35 reached in April. The 50-day moving average of C$25.40 also sits well above the current price, reinforcing a short-term pullback. The 30-day annualised volatility stands at 97.44%, reflecting the market’s extreme sensitivity to every operational update and financing rumour. The 14-day relative strength index is at 48.0, squarely in neutral territory — no signs of overbought or oversold conditions as the stock tries to break out of a consolidation phase.

The biggest counterweight to the optimism is Almonty’s heavy cash burn. The company remains unprofitable and heavily reliant on fresh funding, raising the risk of dilution or growing debt if the ramp-up at Sangdong does not quickly translate into sustained earnings. In June, Almonty placed convertible bonds with a 2.25% coupon maturing in 2031; after underwriters fully exercised their greenshoe option, total proceeds reached $800 million. The initial conversion price of roughly $27.40 per share is well above today’s level, but the overhang of potential dilution continues to weigh on sentiment.

For now, the market is waiting to see whether Sangdong can deliver on its promises. Production updates and concentrate shipment data will be closely watched in the weeks ahead. The gap between the current share price and DA Davidson’s $33 target implies significant upside if execution stays on track — but the combination of record tungsten prices, a freshly operational mine, and the ever-present financing risk means that every step forward will be measured against the cost of getting there.