Almonty’s Revenue Climbs, but Sangdong Ramp-Up Losses Keep the Stock on a Tightrope

Almonty's Q1 revenue hits C$25.4M from Sangdong mine, but net loss of C$5.3M and short-selling pressure keep stock volatile despite 600% yearly gain.

Almonty Industries posted first-quarter revenue of 25.4 million Canadian dollars — a clear sign that its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea is starting to generate meaningful sales. Yet the critical-minerals producer remains in the red, reporting a net loss of 5.3 million dollars as it works through the costly early stages of scaling up output. The mixed financial picture has left investors grappling with a stock that has more than doubled year-to-date but shed roughly 19 percent over the past month.

Shares closed the week at 25.80 Canadian dollars on the Toronto Stock Exchange Friday, down a marginal 0.35 percent on the day but up 7.41 percent compared to the previous Friday’s close. That weekly recovery followed a sharp mid-May selloff that erased nearly 20 percent of the stock’s value in a matter of days, dragging it from a local peak of 30.27 dollars to a trough of 24.02 dollars. The rebound gathered steam through the middle of last week — prices climbed from 23.69 on Monday to 24.26 on Tuesday and 25.89 on Wednesday before the modest Friday retreat.

Behind the price swings lies a fundamental tug-of-war. The Sangdong project positions Almonty as a rare Western alternative to China’s dominance in tungsten, a metal deemed critical for defense, semiconductors and aerospace. Management used appearances at the Critical Minerals Institute Summit and a Bank of America metals conference last month to underline the company’s role in securing Western supply chains. They also highlighted a new demand driver: tungsten wire for photovoltaic applications, expected to add 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes of annual consumption.

But the ramp-up phase inevitably carries costs, and the market is pricing in a wide range of outcomes. Analysts’ fair-value estimates span from 1 to 58 Canadian dollars per share, reflecting the binary nature of the Sangdong payoff. If the mine reaches production stability in the second half of 2026, Almonty could generate the positive cash flow that would support a re-rating. If not, the ongoing losses and dilution risk will remain front and center.

Technical indicators add another layer of caution. The 50-day moving average sits at 26.04 dollars, just above Friday’s close, while volume-based support is seen around 25.17. The relative strength index at 70.4 suggests the stock is already slightly overbought — a condition that often precedes short-term selling pressure. The 200-day moving average of 15.61 is far below current levels, underscoring how far the shares have climbed over the past twelve months (roughly 600 percent) from a 52-week low of 3.56 dollars.

Adding to the week’s noise, a market-data service reported a jump in the cost of borrowing Almonty shares — a telltale sign that short sellers are increasing their bets. The administrative filings that arrived alongside the borrow-rate warning (a cleansing statement, a notice on unlisted securities and a director-interest amendment) contained no updates on production, financing or project milestones, leaving the operations narrative unchanged for now.

The key level to watch remains 25 dollars. If the stock holds above that threshold, the next target zone is between 26 and 27.38, where the first resistance sits. A break below, however, would put the entire weekly gain at risk and could trigger a retest of the May lows. With Sangdong still in its critical ramp-up phase and short interest rising, Almonty’s story is far from settled — even as the revenue line finally begins to reflect the potential.