Almonty's Record Quarter Delivers 221% Revenue Jump and Analyst Upgrades, but the Market Demands More Than Promises

Despite a 221% revenue surge and first positive operating cash flow, Almonty shares slid 17%. Analysts remain bullish on tungsten shortage and US defense policy shift.

Almonty Industries has posted the strongest quarterly numbers in its history, yet its shares have taken a 17% hit over the past month. The disconnect is striking: a 221% revenue surge, positive operating cash flow for the first time, and two analyst upgrades on the same day — but the stock closed at C$24.02 on Friday, roughly a quarter below its 52-week high of C$32.07. Since the start of the year, however, the equity still shows a gain of nearly 100%.

What makes the pullback particularly curious is the depth of the operational turnaround. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 hit $25.4 million, propelled by the steep rise in the spot price of tungsten APT, which climbed from around $900 per tonne in January to above $3,000 by late April and stood at roughly $3,050 in May. The company’s adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $6.1 million from a loss of $2.4 million a year earlier, while operating cash flow flipped from negative $4.4 million to a positive $9.7 million. The net loss narrowed to $5.3 million from $34.6 million — though that figure includes non-cash charges tied to derivatives and warrant revaluations. Almonty’s balance sheet also looks comfortable, with $259.9 million in cash and an equity ratio north of 60%.

The catalyst behind the income explosion is the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which officially started commercial operations in mid-March. Phase 1 of the project is designed to process roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, and analysts at D.A. Davidson, which reaffirmed its buy rating with a $25 price target, expect the mine to reach full commercial capacity within the second quarter of 2026.

Analyst enthusiasm has been building in lockstep. Alliance-Global’s Jake Sekelsky raised his price target to $26.25 from $19.25, keeping a buy recommendation, while Bank of America earlier lifted its target to $23. Of the ten analysts covering the stock, nine rate it a buy and one is neutral. The consensus view is that the fundamentals justify a higher valuation even after the recent pullback.

Underpinning the bullish calls is a structural shortage of tungsten that shows little sign of easing. China produces about 88% of global supply, and a US government report from April 2026 flagged reliance on imported critical minerals as a direct threat to national defence. Starting in January 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers — a regulatory shift that plays directly into Almonty’s hands.

The company is positioning itself accordingly. It recently moved its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, bringing its operations closer to North American supply chains for critical minerals. Its Gentung project in Montana, with mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes, is expected to be ready for production in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, Phase 2 of Sangdong is planned for 2027 and would more than double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes annually.

On June 9, 2026, Almonty will hold its annual general meeting in Toronto, where management is likely to provide further details on the second phase expansion and the ramp-up trajectory. The first full quarter with commercial Sangdong output — Q2 2026 — will be the key test of whether the operational promises can close the valuation gap that the market appears to be pricing in. For now, the record numbers are real, but investors seem to want proof that the momentum can be sustained.