Almonty’s Profit-Taking Pinch: Record Cash Flow and Tripled Revenue Fail to Hold the Stock

Almonty reports 221% revenue surge and positive operating cash flow, but shares fall 9% as investors take profits after a 130% year-to-date rally. Tungsten prices soar on Chinese export controls.

The numbers screamed success, but the market yawned. Almonty Industries posted a stunning 221% revenue surge in the first quarter of 2026, swung to positive operating cash flow, and kicked off production at a world-class tungsten mine. Yet investors used the news as an exit ramp, sending the shares down more than 9% on Xetra Thursday.

The disconnect between operational momentum and stock action highlights the tension that builds after a 130% year-to-date rally on the German exchange. In Canadian dollars, the stock closed Wednesday at 26.74 CAD, still up 122.28% for the year despite a 10.81% monthly pullback.

Tungsten Price Explosion Powers the Quarter

The engine behind the turnaround is unmistakable: a red-hot tungsten market. Spot prices for ammonium paratungstate in Rotterdam have gone vertical, jumping from around 900 US dollars per metric ton in January to over 3,000 dollars by late April. Another data point from the secondary article puts the May 8 price at roughly 3,140 dollars per MTU.

Chinese export controls are squeezing supply, while defense industry demand keeps climbing. Almonty, with its newly operational Sangdong mine in South Korea and an advancing project in Montana, is the most direct western beneficiary of this supply crunch.

The first-quarter financials reflect that. Revenue hit 25.4 million US dollars. Adjusted EBITDA flipped to 6.1 million dollars, and operating cash flow — a metric the market had been waiting years to see — reached 9.7 million dollars. The Panasqueira mine in Portugal also delivered, with mine operating profit jumping to 13.0 million CAD from just 0.8 million CAD a year earlier.

The Red Ink That Isn't Real

Net income remains negative, but the loss is mostly a paper phenomenon. Almonty reported a net loss of 5.3 million dollars, a dramatic improvement from the 34.6 million dollar loss in the year-ago period. Non-cash charges from revaluing financial instruments — 6.4 million dollars tied to embedded derivatives and 2.0 million dollars from warrants — inflated the bottom-line loss. The trigger: the company's own rising stock price during the quarter.

General and administrative expenses did increase to 7.1 million CAD from 3.4 million CAD, which Almonty attributes to higher salaries, legal costs, and shareholder communications. Still, the operational picture is far healthier than the accounting one suggests.

Sangdong and the US Pivot

Mid-March marked a milestone: the formal startup of the Sangdong mine in South Korea, one of the largest tungsten deposits globally. The next expansion phase targets completion in 2027, lifting annual processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes. For western supply chains desperate to reduce dependence on China, Sangdong is a strategic asset.

Almonty is doubling down on that narrative. The company relocated its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, moving closer to US government agencies and defense contractors. The Gentung tungsten project in Montana is now the centerpiece of that effort, with development accelerating toward production readiness in the second half of the year.

CEO Lewis Black has been on a conference blitz to reinforce the message. He presented at BofA Securities' Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference and spoke at the Critical Minerals Forum on secure critical mineral supply chains. Next up: the IIF investor conference on May 20, where more details on US project expansion are expected.

Analysts Keep the Faith

Despite the post-earnings dip, analysts remain bullish. Bank of America recently raised its price target to 23 US dollars with a buy rating. Alliance Global lifted its target to 26.25 dollars from 19.25 dollars on May 13, while D.A. Davidson reaffirmed its buy recommendation on the same day.

Diamond Equity Research, in a paid report, highlights the APT price surge and calculates an illustrative valuation of 31.80 CAD per share — though the firm notes the analysis depends on successful execution of Almonty's plans.

For now, the stock is in a holding pattern, needing sustained proof of stable cash flows. The biggest lever remains the tungsten price, and the biggest test remains Sangdong's transition from startup into commercial production. The raw materials are there. The market is watching to see if the company can deliver the cash consistently.