Almonty's Post-Rally Pullback Masks Strong Fundamentals as Sangdong Mine Begins Production

Almonty shares retreat 5.2% after 240% annual rally; Sangdong mine begins production, analysts raise targets, and index inclusion boosts passive inflows.

Almonty Industries shares have shed some of their recent gains, but the retreat is more of a breather than a reversal for the tungsten producer. The stock slipped 5.2% in the latest session to C$22.16, following an even sharper 8.6% drop earlier in the week. With no negative company news behind either move, the selling looks like profit-taking after a blistering rally — one that saw the stock surge on a string of positive catalysts, from a production milestone at its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea to upgraded analyst price targets.

The real story lies in what's happening on the ground. On July 1, Almonty announced that the Sangdong processing plant had started throughput operations and was producing its first saleable tungsten concentrate. That marks the mine's transition from development to revenue-generating production. Ahead of startup, the company had stockpiled roughly 139,700 tonnes of ore with an average tungsten trioxide (WO?) grade of 0.25%, enough to cover about 2.6 months of phase-one processing. At current tungsten prices, that stockpile carries an estimated gross value of US$68 million.

The operational milestone drew immediate attention from analysts. DA Davidson raised its price target from US$25 to US$33, maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing progress at Sangdong, a solid balance sheet, record tungsten prices, and the potential for U.S. government backing. Shortly after, Oppenheimer lifted its target from US$22 to US$25 with an "Outperform" rating, pointing to robust tungsten and ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices driven by demand from the semiconductor and defense sectors. The consensus among six analysts remains constructive: four rate the stock a "Buy," one a "Strong Buy," and only one a "Sell."

The financial picture, however, is more nuanced. Revenue rose 13% to US$32.5 million in 2025, propelled by a 534% surge in tungsten APT prices to US$2,250 per MTU on a trailing twelve-month basis. But the bottom line swung to a net loss of US$161.9 million for the full year, with US$126.7 million of that stemming from non-cash revaluations of embedded derivatives and warrants — a direct consequence of the stock's sharp climb to C$12.07 during the year. Adjusted EBITDA was negative US$17.1 million. On the positive side, the company ended the year with US$268.4 million in cash after two equity raises, and in June it closed a heavily oversubscribed US$700 million convertible note due 2031, securing a long-term capital cushion.

Index inclusion has also broadened the shareholder base. Almonty joined the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices on June 29, opening the door to passive fund inflows. The stock remains 33.6% below its 52-week high of C$33.35 set in April, yet it is still up roughly 240% over the past twelve months and 84% since the start of the year — a testament to the extraordinary price action.

Technically, the recent pullback has pushed the stock below its 50-day moving average of C$25.25, while the 200-day average at C$18.76 remains support. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 43.7, indicating a market that has cooled from overbought territory without tipping into oversold conditions. With annualized 30-day volatility near 100%, wide swings remain the norm. The next test for Almonty will be whether the Sangdong ramp-up translates into sustainable operating cash flow — and whether derivatives accounting noise can finally take a back seat to real earnings.