Almonty’s Moment of Truth Arrives as Tungsten Prices Quadruple and Pentagon Rules Tighten

Almonty Industries nears commercial production at Sangdong mine amid record tungsten prices, China export ban, and US defense sourcing mandate from 2027.

The stars are aligning for Almonty Industries in a way few junior miners ever experience. Tungsten prices have surged to near-record levels, China has slammed the door on exports, and the Pentagon is about to mandate that US defence contractors buy only from non-Chinese sources. But the real test comes on 21 May, when Almonty publishes its quarterly report with the first hard production numbers from its Sangdong mine in South Korea.

The Sangdong operation has just completed its commissioning phase and is now producing commercially. Phase 1 is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with an estimated output of 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Crucially, the average ore grade of around 0.51% WO? is roughly three times the global average, giving Almonty a significant cost advantage. Analysts at DA Davidson expect the mine to reach full capacity during the second quarter of 2026.

The ramp-up comes at a time when the tungsten market is in the grip of a historic supply shock. Prices have climbed from under $900 per metric tonne of WO? at the end of 2024 to more than $3,000 today. Beijing has replaced its previous quota system with a state-controlled export licensing regime that covers just 15 authorised companies. The impact has been stark: APT exports slumped from 782 tonnes in 2024 to 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of the following year, and by early 2026 they had all but vanished.

The knock-on effects are already being felt in the semiconductor industry. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could run dry as early as this summer.

Almonty’s strategic position has been further reinforced by developments in the United States. A US report published on 29 April 2026 formally identified the country’s dependence on imported critical minerals as a direct threat to national defence and industrial capacity. From January 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty is exempt from US retaliatory tariffs and already holds a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania.

The company’s Montana-based Gentung project adds another layer to the story. Red Mountain Mining, an Australian exploration firm, has secured an exclusive option to acquire the Pioneer Tungsten Project in Montana — a 2,000-hectare claim that sits directly adjacent to Almonty’s Gentung deposit. Historical drilling in the Greenstone zone returned grades between 0.34% and 0.48% WO?, which Red Mountain itself has compared favourably to Almonty’s 6.8-million-tonne Gentung deposit. The message is clear: anyone looking to establish a foothold in the Montana tungsten district is measuring themselves against what Almonty has already built there. If production begins as planned, it would mark the first domestic tungsten output in the US for more than a decade.

Almonty has been busy building its financial firepower. A Nasdaq listing in July 2025 raised $90 million, followed by a further $129 million in follow-on financing in December. The institutional response has been telling: the number of funds holding Almonty shares has jumped by more than 55% to 107. Analysts at Texas Capital, DA Davidson and B. Riley Financial all rate the stock a buy, with price targets ranging from $23 to $25.

The share price has reflected the optimism. Since May 2025, the stock has surged roughly 722% on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Year-to-date, it is up 132%. The current price of 27.86 CAD sits well above the 200-day moving average of 14.14 CAD, though it has pulled back about 13% from the year’s high of 32.07 CAD. On Friday, the stock lost nearly 5% in thin holiday trading. Long-time investor Deutsche Rohstoff AG has trimmed its stake to 4.9%, locking in some of those gains.

The 21 May quarterly report will be the first real test of whether the operational ramp-up is on track. If Sangdong delivers as expected, Phase 2 — doubling processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore annually — is planned for 2027. At full capacity, the mine could supply roughly 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

The annual general meeting on 8 June is expected to provide further detail on those expansion plans. By then, the market will already have its answer on whether Almonty can deliver on its promises.