Almonty’s Korean Mill Starts Turning as Tungsten Markets Catch Fire

Almonty Industries releases first production figures from Sangdong mine amid a 230% tungsten price surge driven by China's export crackdown and US defense demand.

The numbers are staggering. Tungsten prices have more than tripled in a matter of months, China has all but shut the export tap, and a single mine in South Korea is being asked to fill the gap. Almonty Industries, the company behind that mine, is about to find out whether its stock can live up to the hype.

On May 21, the company will release its quarterly report — the first to include actual production figures from the Sangdong mine. That data point has been months in the making. Phase 1 of the operation was commissioned on March 16, ending a three-decade production hiatus at the site. The plant is designed to process roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Crucially, the ore grades average 0.51% tungsten trioxide, roughly three times the global average. That margin of quality gives Almonty a significant buffer even if prices retreat from their current highs.

The market has been voting with its feet. The stock closed at C$29.43 in Toronto, up 9% on the day, and has surged roughly 770% over the past twelve months. Year-to-date, the gain stands at around 150%. Last week, more than 5,200 call options traded on the Canadian-listed shares — multiples of the typical daily volume.

A Supply Squeeze With No End in Sight

The structural driver behind this rally is Beijing’s tightening grip on tungsten exports. China’s Ministry of Commerce replaced its old quota system with a state-controlled export licensing regime that now covers just 15 approved companies. The impact has been brutal: APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to only 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and the trend is heading toward zero.

Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices tell the story. At the end of 2025, a metric tonne unit cost around $900. By April 2026, that figure had climbed to over $3,000 — a jump of more than 230% in a few months. Processing fees for tungsten have surged sixfold, from roughly $300 to over $1,775 per tonne.

The pain is rippling through supply chains. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could run dry as soon as this summer.

A Pentagon Deadline and a Molybdenum Floor

From January 1, 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty is explicitly exempt from US retaliatory tariffs and already holds a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania.

The company also has a second revenue stream that provides a safety net. A molybdenum supply contract kicks in later this year, guaranteeing a minimum annual revenue of $234 million. That is a contractual floor, not a forecast — a rare piece of downside protection in a market defined by volatility.

Montana Heats Up Too

While Sangdong is the headline act, Almonty’s US assets are drawing their own attention. The Gentung deposit in Montana holds 7.53 million tonnes of resource at 0.315% WO?, according to NI 43-101 standards. Production is slated for the second half of 2026, with an annual capacity of around 140,000 metric tonne units of WO?. It would be the first domestic tungsten output in the United States in more than a decade.

The surrounding district is buzzing. On April 30, Red Mountain Mining secured a 30-day purchase option on the Pioneer Tungsten Project, a roughly 2,000-hectare property adjacent to Almonty’s Gentung claims. Historical drilling in the Greenstone zone of that neighbouring ground returned intercepts of 10.7 metres at 0.48% WO? — grades that Red Mountain itself compares to Almonty’s results at Gentung.

The Boardroom Decision and What Comes Next

Ahead of the production data, Almonty’s board faced a deadline of its own. By April 30, directors had to decide whether to implement a reverse stock split of up to five old shares for one new share — a move that would have lifted the share price arithmetically and made the stock more palatable for institutional investors that avoid sub-$5 names. The board also had the option to scrap the plan entirely. The market is awaiting clarity on the company’s future capital structure at the annual general meeting on June 8.

Analysts are broadly bullish. Texas Capital, DA Davidson, and B. Riley Financial all rate the stock a buy, with price targets ranging from $23 to $25. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty has jumped more than 55% to 107. DA Davidson expects Sangdong to reach full commercial capacity in the second quarter of 2026.

The June 8 AGM will also see management outline plans for Phase 2, which would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027. For a stock that has already multiplied sevenfold, the next few weeks will determine whether the valuation has operational backing — or whether the market has simply gotten ahead of itself.