Almonty’s Expanded Offtake Deal and Record Tungsten Prices Confront Heavy Insider Selling and Technical Weakness

Despite a 21-year supply deal worth $490M annually and surging tungsten prices, Almonty's stock fell 22% in a month as insiders sold $227.6M. Technical indicators near oversold.

A 21-year supply agreement worth nearly half a billion dollars in annual revenue, an eightfold surge in tungsten prices, and a processing plant that just started operations — yet Almonty Industries’ stock has shed 22.3% in the past month and insiders have cashed out $227.6 million in net sales over the last 90 days. The disconnect between the Canadian tungsten producer's operational trajectory and its market performance has rarely been wider.

The stock fell 12.3% to C$19.46 on July 14, the same day Almonty announced a major expansion of its long-term offtake contract with Global Tungsten & Powders, a unit of Austria’s Plansee Group. The revised agreement extends the delivery period from 15 to 21 years starting with first production, locking in deliveries through the late 2040s. Phase I output from the Sangdong mine in South Korea will see a 40% volume increase to 4.41 million metric tonne units, while pricing across all contracted deliveries rises by 6.3%. Almonty expects the deal to generate at least $30 million in additional annual revenue at current prices, pushing total annual revenue from the contract to roughly $490 million over its life. The offtake covers about 90% of Phase I tungsten concentrate production.

That revenue visibility is particularly valuable given the geopolitical backdrop. The Pentagon plans to ban purchases of Chinese tungsten from January 2027, and Beijing has already imposed its own export restrictions. Sangdong is positioning itself as one of the largest non-Chinese tungsten sources, and GTP’s willingness to lock in two decades of supply underscores the metal’s strategic importance for Western military supply chains — especially as ammonium paratungstate has surged from about $331 per MTU in early 2025 to nearly $1,900 by February 2026, far outpacing gold and oil over the same period.

Yet the stock’s decline has been relentless. After hitting a 52-week high of C$33.35 on April 17, the shares are now 41.65% below that level. On a year-to-date basis they remain up 61.76%, and the 12-month gain stands at 191.75%. But the near-term technical picture is weak: the stock trades 22.08% below its 50-day moving average of C$24.98 and 23.4% below the 100-day average of C$25.42. Its 14-day relative strength index of 37.2 suggests an approaching oversold condition, while the 200-day moving average at C$18.87 lies just 3.11% below the current price and could offer the next major support. Annualized 30-day volatility has topped 103%.

Insider selling adds another layer of concern. A company director sold 200,000 shares at $24.07 on July 2, a $4.81 million transaction that reduced his stake by 7.4%. That single sale is part of a broader trend: net insider sales over the past 90 days total $227.6 million, with $75.1 million coming from executives alone. Major disposals have been reported by Michael Lewis Black and Daniel D’Amato, and further sales by related parties have been announced.

Analysts, however, remain broadly bullish. DA Davidson raised its price target to $33 from $25 on July 10 and reaffirmed both the target and its “Buy” rating on July 15, citing Sangdong progress and a strong industry outlook. B. Riley Financial lifted its target from $17 to $23 in March, Oppenheimer raised its target to $25 in early June, and Texas Capital upgraded the stock to “Strong Buy” in April. The lone bear is Weiss Ratings, which maintains a “Sell.” The consensus on MarketBeat is “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $21.88 — still above current levels.

The paradox of strong fundamentals and weak price action reflects a market caught between two forces: the structural tungsten boom driven by military demand and supply-chain reconfiguration, and the immediate weight of geopolitics, profit-taking after a long rally, and insider cash-outs. The Sangdong processing plant began operations on July 1, with initial ore stockpiles being fed as the facility ramps toward full Phase I capacity. Whether that operational progress will eventually override the selling pressure depends on whether buyers return to a stock that, by several technical measures, looks increasingly oversold.