Almonty’s Double Bet: A Molybdenum Floor Beneath a Wolfram Boom

Almonty Industries secures $234M minimum revenue from molybdenum as its Sangdong mine ramps up amid a global tungsten shortage driven by China's export curbs.

The tungsten market is tightening at a pace few could have predicted, and Almonty Industries is positioning itself to catch the squeeze from both sides. The company has just secured a molybdenum supply contract that guarantees minimum annual revenue of $234 million—a contractual floor, not a forecast—while its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea begins ramping up output into a market starved of Chinese supply.

The timing is anything but accidental. China’s shift from a quota system to a state-controlled licensing regime at the start of 2025 has throttled exports of ammonium paratungstate (APT), the industry benchmark. Shipments plunged from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of last year, and by early 2026 they had all but vanished. The APT price has responded accordingly, climbing from roughly $1,944 per tonne in February to around $2,526 in April—a surge that has lifted Almonty’s average realised price to $2,250 per MTU by mid-March, up 534% year-on-year.

The supply crunch is now rippling beyond traditional industrial users. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride—critical for 3D NAND chip production—could run dry by this summer. There is no practical substitute, and BMO analysts expect the deficit to widen through 2026.

Sangdong Moves from Development to Production

Almonty completed the first commissioning phase of Sangdong at the end of March, bringing the mine to an annual processing capacity of 640,000 tonnes of ore. That translates to roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year, covering about 40% of non-Chinese global demand. The ore grade stands at 0.51% tungsten trioxide, roughly three times the global average, giving Almonty a significant margin cushion even if prices soften.

DA Davidson analysts expect full commercial capacity to be reached by the second quarter of 2026. Phase 2, slated for completion in 2027, would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes annually. The company closed fiscal 2025 with $268 million in cash, raised through Nasdaq equity offerings, providing ample runway for the expansion.

Eight analysts rate the stock a “Strong Buy,” with an average price target of C$23.71. The shares currently trade at C$26.85, having pulled back roughly 16% in the past week—a move that looks more like profit-taking than a change in fundamentals.

A Strategic Pivot to Montana

Almonty has moved its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana—a shift that carries more weight than a simple change of address. The relocation places the company squarely inside the US defence supply chain, closer to Washington policymakers, defence contractors, and industrial partners. Last autumn, Almonty acquired the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Montana, its first US operation, which is expected to begin production by the second half of 2026.

The Pentagon mandate adds urgency: from 1 January 2027, US defence contractors must eliminate Chinese rare earths and tungsten from their supply chains. Almonty’s tungsten ores and concentrates are explicitly exempt from the new US counter-tariffs, and the company already holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a major US processor based in Pennsylvania. Gentung would be the first domestic tungsten production in the US in over a decade.

The Molybdenum Hedge

The newly signed molybdenum supply agreement, effective this year, provides a revenue backstop independent of tungsten price volatility. The guaranteed minimum price locks in at least $234 million annually—a figure that is contractual, not aspirational. That gives Almonty financial breathing room during the Sangdong ramp-up and insulates it against any temporary dips in the tungsten market.

The number of institutional funds holding Almonty has jumped more than 55% to 107, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s dual-revenue model.

What’s Next: Quarterly Data and a Board Decision

The quarterly report due in May will provide the first concrete production figures from Sangdong’s commissioning phase. On 8 June, the annual general meeting is expected to deliver updates on Phase 2 and the integration of US operations. More immediately, the board must decide today whether to proceed with a shareholder-approved reverse stock split of up to five-to-one—or let the plan lapse.

The next 60 days will be pivotal. The molybdenum contract locks in a revenue floor, Sangdong is feeding concentrate into a tightening market, and the US defence deadline is compressing timelines across the sector. Almonty is no longer a developer waiting for production—it is a producer racing to scale up before the window of opportunity narrows.