Almonty’s Convertible Note Shock Masks a Mine That Could Reshape Western Tungsten Supply

Almonty's $772.7M convertible deal triggers 21% stock plunge, but operational progress at Sangdong mine and strategic tungsten supply chain growth remain strong.

Almonty Industries is caught between two powerful narratives. One tells the story of a strategic lithium alternative — tungsten, the unglamorous but indispensable metal for defence, mining, and aerospace — and of a mine in South Korea that is poised to break China’s decades-long grip on global supply. The other is a stark reminder that ambitious growth comes at a price: a $772.7 million convertible note deal has triggered a brutal selloff, wiping more than a fifth of the company’s market value in seven days.

The contradiction is only skin deep. The convertible issuance, which closed on June 9 after the over-allotment option was fully exercised, hands Almonty the strongest balance sheet it has ever had. Yet institutional investors immediately priced in the dilutive effect of potential share conversion, while retail traders followed the momentum. The result was a 21 percent plunge in the stock, a drop that has little to do with the operational progress being made underground in Sangdong.

That progress is, by any measure, significant. Almonty restarted the Sangdong mine — one of the world’s largest known tungsten deposits outside China — in March 2026 after a decades-long hiatus. Phase 1 production will ramp to full capacity in July, processing roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to yield around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Management has already mapped out Phase 2, which will double output to 4,600 tonnes by 2027, enough to cover nearly 40 percent of non-Chinese global demand.

The timing is no coincidence. The United States will ban imports of Chinese tungsten for defence applications from 2027, and Western governments have classified the metal as critical for national security. Almonty is building an alternative supply chain that spans Portugal, Spain, South Korea, and the United States — a platform that could become indispensable as the West scrambles to reduce its reliance on Beijing, which has historically controlled more than 80 percent of global output.

Operationally, the company is already delivering. First-quarter revenue surged 221 percent to $25.4 million, driven by strong tungsten prices and steady production from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Almonty generated $9.7 million in operating cash flow during the period, a turnaround that predates any contribution from Sangdong’s full capacity.

The market, however, has been fixated on the short-term pain. At C$21.86, the stock now sits 18 percent below its 50-day moving average of C$26.72, and the relative strength index at 37.9 is flirting with oversold territory — though not yet at the capitulation signal of 30. The 200-day average of C$16.83 offers a longer-term anchor, and from the 52-week low of C$4.67, the shares have still gained more than 370 percent. The correction from the all-time high of C$33.35 in mid-April amounts to 34 percent — a steep drop, but one that needs to be seen in the context of annualised 30-day volatility that exceeds 100 percent.

A critical catalyst lies just ahead. On June 29, Almonty is expected to join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. Index inclusion forces passive funds to buy mechanically, providing a liquidity floor that the stock has lacked in recent weeks. The effect is partly priced in already, but the event should reduce the risk of a disorderly slide.

The real inflection point will come in July, when Sangdong’s Phase 1 production reaches full speed. If the mine delivers on the technical promise that justified the capital raise, the narrative will shift from dilution anxiety to operational reality. The next three weeks will determine whether C$21.86 marks a genuine bottom or just another waypoint on a volatile descent. The ingredients for a re-rating are all in place: index inflows, a production ramp, and a balance sheet that is now rock-solid. What remains to be seen is whether Sangdong can prove itself as the cornerstone of a new Western tungsten supply chain.