Almonty's Capital-Raising Marathon: $700M Convertible Note and AGM Test Shareholder Patience Amid Soaring Tungsten Prices

Almonty Industries faces make-or-break day with $700M convertible settlement and AGM; stock down 21% from highs, but tungsten demand surges.

Tuesday, June 9, shapes up as a make-or-break day for Almonty Industries. The tungsten producer is juggling the settlement of a massive $700 million convertible note, an annual shareholder meeting in Toronto, and a stock that has already shed nearly 14% in the past week. With macro data from the US and Canada due midweek, investors are bracing for a volatile stretch.

The convertible bond issue — carrying a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031 — was heavily oversubscribed. Almonty expects net proceeds of roughly $675.9 million, a figure that could rise to $772.7 million if underwriters fully exercise a 13-day greenshoe option for an additional $100 million. The conversion price is set at $27.40 per share, a 32.5% premium over the $20.68 closing price just before the deal was announced.

Proceeds are earmarked for a three-pronged strategy. Around $83 million will go toward capped-call transactions designed to cap dilution at $41.36 per share — a 100% premium to the reference price. Another $50 million is slated for refinancing existing debt. The lion’s share, roughly $543 million, is reserved for working capital and general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions. Almonty’s cash balance stood at nearly C$260 million at the end of March, giving the company ample firepower for its growth plans.

Alongside the convertible settlement, the AGM will seek to confirm a seven-member board, keeping the leadership team intact as the company deepens its ties to the US capital market. The meeting follows a C-suite reshuffle that brought Jorge Beristain in as CFO, replacing Brian Fox. Beristain previously helped Ryerson Holding boost its market cap during his tenure as a financial manager.

The timing of the convertible settlement coincides with a sharp pullback in Almonty’s share price. The stock closed Friday at C$22.70 in Toronto, down 21% from the April high of C$33.35. Technical indicators paint a cautious picture: the stock now trades below both the 50-day moving average of C$26.64 and the 100-day moving average. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 39.3, suggesting weak momentum without reaching oversold extremes. With trailing 30-day annualized volatility of about 100%, the shares are far from settled.

Despite the near-term turbulence, the fundamental backdrop remains robust. First-quarter revenue surged 221% year over year to C$25.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $6.1 million. The net loss narrowed to C$5.3 million, largely due to non-cash accounting effects from the rising stock price. The European tungsten APT price has climbed 233% since the start of the year, and a new US directive banning Chinese tungsten from defense supply chains by 2027 adds a powerful structural tailwind. Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea is expected to cover more than 80% of global tungsten production outside China, positioning the company as a critical supplier for Western markets.

Looking ahead, another catalyst looms just three weeks away. On June 29, Almonty will join the Russell 1000 and 3000 indexes, a milestone that typically funnels passive investment flows into the stock. The combination of index inclusion, a tight tungsten market, and a well-capitalized balance sheet could eventually shift sentiment — but for now, the stock remains highly volatile and 32% off its 52-week high. Wednesday’s US inflation print and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision could further amplify swings in risk-sensitive mining equities.

The real question is whether the market will view Almonty’s enlarged capital base as a launchpad for growth or as a source of lingering dilution risk. The first few trading sessions after Tuesday’s settlement will offer an early read on how investors are pricing that trade-off.