Almonty’s Accounting Mirage: A $161.9 Million Loss That Signals Strength

Almonty's net loss surged tenfold due to a non-cash derivative charge, yet a tungsten supply crisis and Sangdong mine ramp-up drive shares up 136%, with DCF fair value at C$44.11.

The numbers look brutal on the surface. Almonty Industries posted a net loss of 161.9 million Canadian dollars for fiscal 2025, nearly ten times the 16.3 million loss a year earlier. But in a twist that would make any accountant wince, the bulk of that red ink stems from the company’s own stock market success.

The culprit is a non-cash revaluation of embedded derivative liabilities tied to convertible bonds. As Almonty’s share price surged, those derivatives grew more expensive on paper, generating an 87.3 million Canadian dollar charge. The mechanism is almost ironic: the stronger the equity performance, the larger the accounting hit. Strip out that paper loss and the underlying operational picture looks far healthier.

Tungsten’s Perfect Storm

What’s driving that share price rally is a global supply crisis that could hardly be better timed for the Canadian miner. China, which controls roughly 80 percent of the world’s tungsten supply, replaced its export quota system with a strict licensing model restricted to a handful of state-controlled entities. The result: exports of ammonium paratungstate (APT), the key intermediate product, have effectively ground to a halt.

The price of APT has exploded from around $900 per tonne at the end of 2025 to over $3,000 today — a gain of 230 percent. The knock-on effects are already rattling Asian technology supply chains. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that stocks of tungsten hexafluoride, a gas essential for 3D NAND memory chip production, could run dry by mid-year.

For Almonty, which is transitioning from developer to producer at its Sangdong mine in South Korea, the timing is impeccable. Phase 1 commissioning was completed in March, and the company is now ramping up output with first meaningful revenues expected this year.

The Valuation Gap

Despite a share price that has more than doubled since January — climbing roughly 136 percent to 28.40 Canadian dollars — a discounted cash flow model suggests there’s still room to run. The DCF analysis pegs fair value at 44.11 Canadian dollars per share, implying upside of nearly 62 percent from the current trading level of around 27.30 Canadian dollars.

But that’s not the whole story. At 21.7 times book value, Almonty trades at a massive premium to the Canadian mining sector average of 3.1 times. Investors are clearly betting on future earnings, not current assets. Analysts project annual revenue growth of 37.7 percent, driven by long-term offtake agreements with Western defense and technology companies desperate for non-Chinese tungsten sources.

War Chest and Western Pivot

The company is well capitalized for the ramp-up. A December 2025 equity raise brought in roughly $129 million US, and year-end cash stood at 268.4 million Canadian dollars — enough to fund the final stages of Sangdong’s development. Return on equity is expected to hit 62.5 percent at full capacity, with breakeven projected within three fiscal years.

Almonty is also repositioning its corporate structure for a Western-focused future. In April, the company moved its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, where its first US property — the Gentung Browns Lake project — could resume production by late 2026. The management team is getting a boost too: Jorge Beristain, formerly a managing director at Deutsche Bank, takes over as chief financial officer in June.

What’s Next

The next formal milestone comes June 9, when Almonty holds its annual general meeting. The agenda includes the presentation of annual results and the customary board elections. With Sangdong moving toward commercial production, a global supply crisis tightening, and a war chest that gives the company breathing room, the AGM is likely to be more about execution updates than fundraising.