Almonty’s $102 Million Loss Masks a Wolfram Empire Taking Shape

Almonty's revenue jumps 39% to $8.7M, but a $102M net loss from non-cash derivative revaluation masks progress as Sangdong mine nears full output amid a global tungsten shortage.

The headline numbers from Almonty Industries’ latest quarterly report tell two very different stories. Revenue surged 39% to $8.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, powered by a sharp rise in the spot price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), whose rolling annual average hit $2,250 per metric tonne unit. Yet the same period produced a net loss of $102.3 million — a figure that has sent the stock sliding 5.4% to around $20.75 and kept it under pressure into Tuesday’s session.

The disconnect is almost entirely an accounting artifact. Management points out that $87.3 million of that loss stems from a non-cash revaluation of embedded derivative liabilities, triggered by the stock’s dramatic 2025 rally. The adjustment has no impact on liquidity or operations. Almonty closed fiscal 2025 with $268.4 million in cash, raised through Nasdaq equity offerings, providing ample runway for the next phase of growth.

Sangdong Moves from Construction to Cash Flow

The real story lies underground in South Korea. Almonty completed Phase 1 commissioning of the Sangdong mine at the end of March 2026 and has begun the transition to regular commercial operations. The facility is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong is expected to supply roughly 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

The timing aligns with a market that is tightening fast. China introduced export controls on several tungsten products in early 2025, replacing its quota system with a state-controlled licensing process that limits exports to just 15 approved companies. APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they were approaching zero. The APT price has responded accordingly, climbing from around $1,944 per tonne unit in February to roughly $2,526 in April 2026.

Industry analysts warn of a potential tungsten shortage from mid-2026, driven by surging demand from the semiconductor sector and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Japanese suppliers have already alerted Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could run dry this summer.

A Board Decision That Could Reshape the Stock

Almonty’s board faces a critical deadline this Wednesday. Shareholders have authorized management to execute a reverse stock split of up to five existing shares into one, at a ratio and timing of the board’s choosing — or to scrap the plan entirely.

The logic is straightforward. A higher per-share price would make the stock more accessible to institutional investors, many of which avoid stocks trading below $5. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty has already jumped more than 55% to 107. The stock sits at a 52-week high of C$32.07, representing a gain of over 710% from a year ago. Last week alone, traders snapped up more than 5,200 call options, multiples of the average daily volume, while annualized volatility exceeds 100%.

Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish. Seven firms cover the stock, with six rating it a “Buy” and one a “Hold.” Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 17 with a $25 price target, joining B. Riley Financial and DA Davidson, which set targets of $23 and $25 respectively in March. The consensus among three research houses is “Strong Buy.”

Pentagon Mandate and a Second Mine on the Horizon

The strategic tailwinds extend well beyond commercial markets. From January 1, 2027, a Pentagon mandate will require U.S. defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-China suppliers. Almonty’s tungsten ores and concentrates are explicitly exempt from new U.S. retaliatory tariffs, and the company holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a leading U.S. processor based in Pennsylvania.

Almonty is also advancing the Gentung project in Montana, which is expected to be production-ready in the second half of 2026. The company’s cash position of $268.4 million provides the financing base for both the Sangdong ramp-up and the Montana restart.

What Comes Next

May will bring the first concrete production data from Sangdong, when Almonty’s quarterly report includes initial output figures from the mine’s ramp-up. DA Davidson expects the operation to reach full commercial capacity in the second quarter of 2026. Then on June 8, the annual general meeting will put Phase 2 expansion plans before shareholders — a project that would double processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year.

For a company that has just posted a nine-figure loss, Almonty’s trajectory looks anything but distressed. The accounting noise is real, but so is the cash, the production, and the market that is forming around a tightening tungsten supply chain.