Almonty Races to Capitalise on Wolfram Crisis as US Clients Queue Up

Almonty's Sangdong mine ramps up as China restricts wolfram exports, with prices surging and US defense demand driving a strategic shift to non-Chinese supply.

The global wolfram market is tightening by the week, and Almonty Industries finds itself in an unusually powerful position. With Chinese export restrictions squeezing supply to near-zero levels, the company is fast becoming the West's best hope for a non-Chinese source of the critical metal. The timing of its operational ramp-up in South Korea could hardly be more fortuitous.

China's stranglehold on ammonium paratungstate exports has pushed prices from around $1,944 per tonne in February to over $2,500. Japanese suppliers are already warning Samsung and SK Hynix that they may run out of tungsten hexafluoride—essential for chip production—by mid-summer. Recycling cannot scale quickly enough to fill the gap, and global stockpiles are expected to last only until mid-year.

Sangdong Delivers First Output

Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea completed its initial commissioning phase at the end of March and has now entered commercial production. At full capacity, the project is expected to supply roughly 40% of the world's wolfram demand outside China. The ore grade stands at around 0.51% tungsten trioxide, three times the global average, giving the company a comfortable margin buffer even if prices retreat.

Current output stands at approximately 2,300 tonnes of wolfram concentrate per year, with plans already in place to double that by 2027. The next phase, which would lift processing capacity to over one million tonnes of ore annually, will be put to a shareholder vote at the upcoming annual general meeting.

Half the Output Reserved for US Buyers

The Pentagon is driving much of the demand. From early 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source wolfram exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty has already secured an explicit exemption from US tariffs and is reserving nearly half its production for American customers.

To deepen its ties with Washington, the company is relocating its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana—home to the recently acquired Gentung wolfram project. That operation is slated for restart by the end of 2026, which would give Almonty production on two continents serving Western buyers directly.

Balance Sheet Under Pressure

Building this supply chain is expensive. For fiscal 2025, Almonty reported a net loss of roughly C$162 million on revenue of just C$32.5 million. Heavy spending on mine development and the Nasdaq listing weighed heavily on the books. Analysts caution that further capital raises cannot be ruled out.

The stock has been a wild ride. Over the past twelve months, shares have surged 660%, currently trading at C$27.71. But profit-taking has set in recently, with the stock losing around 13% over the past week.

Board Faces Reverse Split Decision

Management has until 30 April to decide on a reverse stock split, authorised by shareholders. Up to five existing shares could be consolidated into one, a move designed to lift the nominal price and attract institutional investors who typically avoid single-digit stocks. The number of funds invested in Almonty has already climbed noticeably past one hundred.

Analysts are broadly constructive. Texas Capital initiated coverage with a buy rating and a US$25 price target, joining B. Riley and DA Davidson in issuing similar calls.

What Comes Next

May will bring the first real test of operational execution. The upcoming quarterly report will contain the initial production figures from Sangdong, followed shortly by the shareholder vote on expansion. If the Gentung restart proceeds on schedule, Almonty will be producing directly for Western customers on two continents by the end of 2026—just as the wolfram supply crunch reaches its peak.