Almonty Positioned at the Intersection of Record Tungsten Prices and US Defense Procurement Shift

US ban on Chinese/Russian tungsten from 2027 forces supply chain shift; Almonty's South Korea and Montana mines poised to fill gap, stock up 23%.

A US procurement ban on tungsten from China and Russia, due to take effect on January 1, 2027, is forcing defence and industrial supply chains to find new sources — and Almonty Industries has emerged as one of the few western miners capable of bridging the gap. The company’s stock reacted sharply, climbing about 6% on Tuesday, bringing its advance from a recent technical support level to more than 23%.

Washington’s move targets a critical vulnerability. China controls over 80% of global tungsten reserves and production, and together with Russia and North Korea that share reaches roughly 95%. The metal is essential for military hardware — missiles, fighter jets, armour-piercing ammunition — as well as semiconductor manufacturing. From next year, US military contracts will be prohibited from using any tungsten mined, refined or smelted in covered states, effectively severing the two dominant supply routes.

Almonty’s primary answer lies in South Korea. The Sangdong mine, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China, resumed production in March after a 30-year hiatus. Phase 1 is expected to reach full commercial operation in the third quarter of 2026, processing around 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, targeted for 2027, would expand capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year — more than 460,000 metric tonne units (MTU) of tungsten — doubling current output. At full tilt, Sangdong could supply about 40% of the tungsten demand from countries outside China.

Alongside the Korean asset, Almonty is building a US presence. The Gentung Browns Lake Project in Beaverhead County, Montana, is on track to begin production in the second half of 2026 with a potential annual capacity of 140,000 MTU. More than 90% of that volume is already under long-term contracts with US defence and technology customers. The location is no accident: the region supplied tungsten for national reserves during World War II and the Korean War. Almonty moved its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, to strengthen ties with government partners and shorten supply lines.

The market backdrop is unusually supportive. Ammonium paratungstate (APT), the benchmark tungsten pricing standard, surged from around $862 per MTU in early January to roughly $3,140 by mid-May 2026 — a gain of more than 200% in under five months. Structural deficits have driven the move, and China’s tightening export policy has added further pressure. Almonty’s mining profit vaulted to C$13 million from C$0.8 million a year earlier, reflecting the price tailwind as the company transitions from developer to producer.

The stock’s fundamentals reflect both the opportunity and the premium. At a closing price of C$27.09, the market capitalisation stands at about C$7.35 billion — roughly 147 times trailing twelve-month revenue of C$50 million. Analysts at Bank of America justify the multiple with expected revenue leaps: C$670 million this year and C$1.32 billion in 2027. Alliance-Global analyst Jake Sekelsky raised his price target to $26.25 (USD), and the consensus from nine analysts is “Strong Buy.” The stock has rallied about 600% since May 2025 and remains above its 200-day moving average.

On the charts, the shares have found support at the lower boundary of an upward-trending channel that has been in place since early 2025. The 52-week high of C$32.07, set in April, still sits roughly 15% above current levels. The relative strength index reads 74.5 — technically overbought — but the stock is holding just above its 50-day average of C$26. Whether the fundamental story closes that gap depends largely on Sangdong’s ramp-up hitting the third-quarter milestone. Without smooth operational progress, the recent price move remains largely a bet on a tightening tungsten market and Washington’s procurement deadline.