Almonty Locks in $234 Million Floor as Tungsten Crisis Reshapes Global Supply Chains

Almonty secures $234M annual molybdenum floor, while its Sangdong tungsten mine becomes the West's key alternative amid China's export crackdown and soaring prices.

A single contract has quietly transformed Almonty Industries' financial profile. The Canadian miner signed an exclusive offtake agreement with SeAH M&S — South Korea's largest molybdenum processor and the world's second-biggest molybdenum oxide smelter — covering 100 percent of output from the Sangdong Molybdenum Project. The deal guarantees minimum annual revenue of $234 million, a contractual floor rather than a forecast. Production is slated to begin by the end of 2026, with a projected mine life of 60 years. The molybdenum deposit sits roughly 150 meters from the already-operating Sangdong tungsten mine, allowing shared infrastructure and logistics to compress costs for both operations.

The timing could hardly be more favorable. China's shift from a quota system to a state-controlled export licensing regime — limited to just 15 approved companies — has choked global tungsten supply. Ammonium paratungstate, the key intermediate product, saw exports collapse from 782 tonnes in 2024 to 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025. By early 2026, shipments had effectively stopped. The price response has been dramatic: APT climbed from around $900 per metric ton unit at the end of 2025 to above $3,000 by April 2026, a surge of more than 230 percent in a matter of months.

The semiconductor industry is feeling the pinch directly. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their inventories of tungsten hexafluoride — an irreplaceable material for 3D NAND chip production with up to 200 layers — may run dry as early as June. Those Japanese producers account for roughly 25 percent of global WF? supply, and no functional substitute exists for tungsten in advanced memory chips.

Almonty's Sangdong tungsten mine positions the company as the only viable Western alternative. Phase 1 commissioning wrapped up at the end of March 2026, and the operation has transitioned to regular production. The mill is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong could supply about 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. The ore grade of roughly 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide — about three times the global average — provides a geological buffer that would protect margins even if prices retreat from current highs.

Washington has explicitly exempted Almonty's tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from US retaliatory tariffs, backed by a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. That protection becomes even more critical from January 1, 2027, when a Pentagon mandate will require US defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty's Gentung project in Montana is expected to be production-ready in the second half of 2026, which would mark the first domestic US tungsten output in over a decade.

The financial picture is strengthening. Revenue rose 39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $8.7 million. The reported net loss of $102.3 million is largely an accounting artifact — $87.3 million stems from a non-cash revaluation of derivative liabilities triggered by the sharp rise in the company's share price. Almonty closed fiscal 2025 with $268.4 million in cash.

The stock has reflected the momentum, closing recently at C$27.97 — up roughly 132 percent year-to-date and nearly 700 percent over twelve months. That still leaves it about 13 percent below the 52-week high of C$32.07. Texas Capital, DA Davidson, and B. Riley Financial all rate the shares a buy, with price targets ranging from $23 to $25.

Investors will get their first hard look at Sangdong's production ramp on May 21, when Almonty releases its quarterly report with initial output figures. DA Davidson analysts expect the mine to reach full commercial capacity during the second quarter of 2026. Then on June 8, shareholders will vote on Phase 2 expansion plans at the annual meeting — a proposal to double processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year by 2027. If approved, that would cement Sangdong's role as the dominant non-Chinese tungsten supplier at a moment when the world's chipmakers have nowhere else to turn.