Almonty Jumps 12% on Sangdong Production Start and $33 Price Target; Convertible Note Overhang Clouds Rally

Almonty Industries jumps 12.4% as DA Davidson hikes target to $33, Sangdong mine begins saleable tungsten output; stock up 94% YTD.

Almonty Industries delivered its most powerful single-session gain in recent memory on Friday, with shares climbing 12.4% to close at C$23.38. The move was sparked by a double dose of positive catalysts: an analyst price-target hike to $33 from $25 at DA Davidson and the confirmation that the company’s Sangdong mine in South Korea has begun producing saleable tungsten concentrate. The stock has now more than doubled year-to-date, up 94.35%, and has surged 200.51% over the past twelve months — though it remains nearly 30% below the 52-week high of C$33.35 hit back in April.

DA Davidson analyst Matt Summerville raised his price objective after a virtual roadshow with Almonty founder, chairman and chief executive Lewis Black. The upgraded target reflects a higher long-term tungsten price assumption, though Summerville cautioned that even the new estimate is conservative relative to current spot prices. He reiterated a “Buy” rating, citing progress at Sangdong, potential collaboration with the U.S. government, a solid balance sheet and record-high tungsten prices. The 12-percentage-point gap between the new $33 target and Friday’s close implies meaningful upside, but the stock’s annualised 30-day volatility of 97.44% suggests a bumpy ride ahead.

Sangdong has turned a critical corner. In June 2026 Almonty began feeding stockpiled run-of-mine ore through the newly constructed processing plant, producing its first tungsten concentrate. Management expects to reach full processing capacity in the third quarter of 2026, transitioning from construction to steady-state output. The milestone is designed to broaden the revenue base and improve cash generation, though profitability remains elusive: Almonty carries a negative EBIT margin and a modest revenue base of approximately €32.5 million — albeit growing at a three-year compound annual rate of about 25%.

Investors also cheered the company’s recent inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. Index fund managers typically acquire shares of newly added stocks, which boosts liquidity and visibility among institutional investors. Oppenheimer analysts have pointed to the strong tungsten price environment as an additional tailwind, while noting that molybdenum — a by-product often associated with such mining projects — surged 48.9% in May 2026 to roughly $65,503 per tonne.

From a technical perspective, Almonty’s shares are trading below their near-term moving averages: the 50-day and 100-day lines sit at C$25.40 and C$25.39, respectively. The 200-day average, however, stands at C$18.69, about 25% below the current price, keeping the long-term uptrend intact. The relative strength index of 48.0 points to neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold. Support is seen in the C$15.00–C$15.20 zone, with resistance at C$17.50–C$18.00 — a range the stock has already left behind.

Almonty’s balance sheet continues to temper the bullish narrative. The company raised $700 million through convertible notes, convertible at roughly $27.40 per share. While Almonty hedged the conversion exposure through capped calls, the sheer size of the bond relative to a market capitalisation of roughly €3.64 billion leaves a long-term dilution risk for existing equity holders. The company remains dependent on external financing, and analysts caution that any delay in the Sangdong ramp-up could exacerbate capital burn and leverage.

DA Davidson is not the only firm turning upbeat. Texas Capital upgraded the stock to “Strong Buy” in April, and B. Riley Financial raised its target from $17 to $23 in March while maintaining a buy recommendation. Not all voices are positive: Weiss Ratings assigned a “Sell (D-)” rating in June. The contrasting views underscore the uncertainty surrounding Almonty’s path to sustainable profitability.

With Sangdong still in its early production phase and full capacity expected in the coming quarter, the market will be watching for operational updates and further analyst commentary. The $33 target implies that at least one Wall Street firm believes the rally has further to run — provided the company can convert mine output into cash without diluting its shareholders too heavily.