Almonty Industries: The Tungsten Timer Ticks for Chipmakers

A looming tungsten hexafluoride shortage threatens chipmakers. Almonty Industries' Sangdong mine is set to become a major non-Chinese supplier, attracting massive investor interest and surging 690% YTD.

A looming supply shock is about to hit the global semiconductor industry, and a single Canadian mining company is positioned at its epicenter. With critical inventories of tungsten hexafluoride (WF6) projected to run dry by June, South Korean chip giants like Samsung face a stark shortage of the essential gas, triggered by China's tightened export controls to Japan. In this high-stakes scramble, Almonty Industries has become the sole Western-aligned producer ready to fill the breach.

The company’s strategic advantage is crystallizing at its Sangdong mine in South Korea’s Gangwon province. After over three decades of dormancy, the operation has completed its first phase of commissioning. It is now processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to produce approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned Phase 2 expansion, slated for 2027, aims to double this capacity. At full tilt, Sangdong is expected to supply about 40% of the world's tungsten demand outside of China.

This operational pivot is attracting significant institutional capital. The number of funds holding Almonty shares jumped by more than 55% last quarter to 107. Van ECK Associates now holds 11.2 million shares valued at roughly $99 million. New entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors with a $25.6 million position and Next Century Growth Investors with $16.3 million. The stock itself has surged, posting a staggering year-to-date gain of over 690% to trade at 24.43 CAD.

Analysts are rapidly recalibrating their targets to reflect the shifting supply dynamics and Almonty's pivotal role. B. Riley lifted its price target from $17 to $23, reaffirming a Buy rating. Oppenheimer increased its target from $16 to $19, maintaining an Outperform rating. DA Davidson holds the highest target among major brokers at $25. GBC Research made a dramatic adjustment, raising its target from 9.00 CAD to 28.60 CAD.

Geopolitical deadlines are adding rocket fuel to the demand outlook. The US government has explicitly exempted Almonty’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from recent counter-tariffs. Furthermore, a hard deadline takes effect on January 1, 2027, banning US defense contractors from sourcing tungsten from China. This policy shift is accelerating the hunt for secure, Western sources of the critical metal, for which there is no viable substitute due to its exceptionally high melting point.

Financially, the company remains in a growth investment phase. For fiscal 2025, revenue grew 13% to 32.5 million CAD against a net loss of 161.9 million CAD. However, a capital raise in December bolstered its war chest, leaving Almonty with 268.4 million CAD in liquid assets to fund its expansion. Diamond Equity Research forecasts a milestone: the company's first meaningful quarterly profit as a producer, estimating earnings of $0.12 per share for Q2 2026.

Beyond Sangdong, Almonty is advancing its Vittal Brown Lake project in Montana. With mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes, the site is scheduled for production readiness in the second half of 2026, targeting an annual output of around 140,000 tonnes. Management has set ambitious long-term goals, aiming for annual revenue of approximately one billion Canadian dollars with a 60% net margin by 2028. As the clock ticks down on global tungsten stockpiles, Almonty Industries is moving from a development story to a critical supplier in real time.