Almonty Industries: The Mine Launch Capturing Institutional Capital

Almonty Industries sees a 55% surge in institutional ownership as its Sangdong mine restarts during a global tungsten shortage, driven by semiconductor and defense demand.

A dramatic surge in institutional ownership is signaling a major shift for Almonty Industries. The number of funds holding the tungsten producer’s stock jumped by over 55% last quarter to 107, a vote of confidence that extends far beyond simple commodity speculation. This influx coincides with the company’s pivotal transition from developer to active producer at a time of severe global supply stress.

The scale of individual position-building is striking. Van ECK Associates expanded its stake by more than 13,000%, establishing a holding worth approximately $99 million. Other notable new entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors with a $25.6 million position and Next Century Growth Investors with $16.3 million. This capital is betting on Almonty’s unique positioning within a fractured supply chain.

Geopolitical tensions have ignited the underlying tungsten market. By mid-March 2026, the spot price for tungsten APT had skyrocketed 534% to $2,250 per metric ton. The catalyst is a profound concentration of supply, with China, Russia, and North Korea estimated to control 95% of global output. After the US imposed tariffs on Chinese tungsten products, Beijing retaliated with its own export restrictions at the end of 2025. These Chinese curbs are now crippling Asian semiconductor production by disrupting the supply of tungsten hexafluoride (WF?), a gas essential for connecting and cooling transistors in advanced logic and memory chips.

South Korean chipmakers, who consume roughly 40% of the world’s WF? gas, face prices more than double their previous levels. Analysts at BMO forecast a tangible supply deficit by 2026, as building alternative Western supply chains will take years. Into this breach steps Almonty with the phased restart of its historic Sangdong mine in South Korea. The facility, now in its first production phase, is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, delivering about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned second phase in 2027 is expected to double that output, potentially supplying 40% of non-Chinese global tungsten demand.

The investment case is further bolstered by a strategic trade exemption. The Trump administration has since excluded tungsten from country-specific tariffs, a move that directly benefits Almonty’s export calculations. Beyond semiconductors, sustained demand from the defense sector provides a secondary tailwind, with the US set to ban imports of Chinese tungsten for weaponry starting in 2027.

Financial results for the 2025 fiscal year show a company funding its growth phase. Revenue climbed 13% to 32.5 million Canadian dollars, supported by its established Panasqueira mine in Portugal and the strong price environment. However, the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to 17 million CAD, driven largely by a 231% increase in general and administrative expenses. Following a successful $129.4 million capital raise in December 2025, the company entered the new year with a robust cash position of 268.4 million CAD.

Analysts have broadly revised their targets upward in response to this evolving story. B. Riley Financial raised its price target from $17 to $23, reaffirming a Buy rating. Oppenheimer increased its target from $16 to $19, while DA Davidson maintains a $25 target. In a notable estimate revision, Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its 2026 EPS forecast from $0.23 to $0.45.

Almonty is not relying on a single asset. A second growth driver is taking shape with the Gentung-Browns-Lake project in Montana, USA. The deposit holds 7.53 million tonnes at a tungsten trioxide grade of 0.315%. The company is targeting production readiness in the second half of 2026, with an expected annual capacity of roughly 140,000 metric tonne units. The coming quarters will be critical as investors watch to see if Sangdong can efficiently ramp up to its planned volumes, a key test for both financial performance and market sentiment.