Almonty Industries: The Clock Ticks on a Chipmaking Crisis

Japan halts vital tungsten gas shipments, threatening global 3D chip production. Almonty's Sangdong mine emerges as a key non-Chinese supplier, with its stock surging over 105%.

A stark warning from Japanese suppliers has sent shockwaves through South Korea's semiconductor sector: shipments of tungsten hexafluoride will cease this summer. This process gas is indispensable for manufacturing advanced 3D memory chips. As global stockpiles dwindle at an alarming rate, a single mining project is emerging as the tech industry's potential lifeline.

The root of this acute shortage is a geopolitical standoff. China, which alongside Russia and North Korea controls roughly 95% of the world's tungsten supply, slashed exports dramatically in late 2025 in response to US tariffs. For South Korean manufacturers, who source a quarter of their needs from Japan, this creates a massive problem. Industry estimates suggest current industrial inventories will only last until June. This dynamic has triggered an unprecedented price rally, with the spot price for tungsten APT exploding by 534% to $2,250 per tonne by mid-March 2026.

In this tense environment, Almonty Industries' Sangdong mine in South Korea is crystallizing as the sole reliable alternative outside China's sphere of influence. The timing is critical. The commercial start for the facility is set for the second quarter of 2026. The first phase is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned expansion in 2027 could see the mine supply about 40% of global demand outside China.

The implications of the export squeeze extend far beyond defense. Without tungsten hexafluoride, the production of modern 3D NAND chips—which require the metal for up to 200 layers—grinds to a halt. This has forced a fundamental reassessment of Almonty's financial prospects. After a net loss of CAD 161.9 million in fiscal 2025, analysts now project revenue will leap to CAD 747.7 million in 2026 with an expected EBITDA margin exceeding 50%. The market is already pricing in this scenario, with the stock up over 105% since the start of the year to close at CAD 24.75.

Concurrently, Almonty is advancing its Gentung project in Montana, USA. From January 2027, the US Department of Defense will require American defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. The planned operational start for this North American asset is the second half of 2026. To protect domestic industry, the US government has granted a strategic exemption, ensuring Almonty's ore and concentrates are exempt from reciprocal US tariffs, securing the economics of its supply deal with US processor Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania.

This strategic positioning is attracting institutional attention. The number of invested funds jumped by over 55% last quarter to 107. Several analysts significantly raised their price targets in March, reflecting the changed outlook. GBC lifted its target from CAD 9.00 to CAD 28.60, while DA Davidson set a new target at USD 25.00. B. Riley Financial increased its target from USD 17.00 to USD 23.00, and Oppenheimer raised its target from USD 16.00 to USD 19.00.

Management confidence was demonstrated in early April when the company's Chairman invested CAD 2.1 million in personal share purchases at an average price of CAD 20.58. Investors now await key operational milestones. The quarterly report in May 2026 will provide the first production data from Sangdong. The Annual General Meeting on June 8 will offer updates on the planned Phase 2 expansion. The success of Almonty's high-stakes scenario now hinges on executing a smooth production ramp-up in Sangdong before chipmakers' tungsten reserves run dry in early summer.