Almonty Industries: The $3,190-a-Tonne Catalyst

Geopolitical mandates and tech shortages drive tungsten prices up 250%, funneling institutional capital to Almonty Industries as it ramps up its key Sangdong mine.

A perfect storm of geopolitical mandates and critical supply shortages is funneling unprecedented institutional capital towards a single asset: tungsten. At the center of this scramble sits Canadian miner Almonty Industries, whose strategic projects are positioning it as a primary beneficiary of a global supply chain overhaul. The urgency is underscored by a staggering price surge, with tungsten recently trading at $3,190 per metric tonne unit in Rotterdam, a massive leap from approximately $900 at the start of the year.

The catalyst is twofold, creating immediate demand from both defense and technology sectors. A looming 2027 deadline from the U.S. Department of Defense will ban Chinese tungsten from American weaponry, forcing defense contractors to urgently secure alternative sources. Simultaneously, South Korean semiconductor giants like Samsung and SK Hynix face a dire shortage of tungsten hexafluoride gas due to tightened Chinese export controls, with industry reports suggesting their refined tungsten stockpiles may only last until June 2026.

Institutional investors are moving with remarkable speed to capitalize on this convergence. Last quarter, the number of institutional funds holding Almonty shares jumped over 55% to 107. Van Eck Associates led the charge, boosting its position by more than 13,000% to about 11.2 million shares valued at nearly $99 million. Other major players, including Encompass Capital Advisors and Next Century Growth Investors, have also built substantial positions, signaling deep conviction far beyond routine index adjustments.

Almonty’s operational progress is meeting this demand head-on. The company recently completed the first commissioning phase of its Sangdong mine in South Korea, celebrating the site's first production in three decades. Officially inaugurated on April 1st, the mine is poised to become a local, China-independent resource for the regional semiconductor cluster. Its initial annual capacity is set for approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate.

The financial implications are dramatic. Analysts project company revenue will skyrocket from CAD 32.5 million to CAD 747.7 million by 2026. This bullish outlook has triggered a series of analyst upgrades and soaring share prices. GBC analysts raised their price target on April 9th from CAD 9.00 to CAD 28.60, citing the improved earnings profile from Sangdong’s ramp-up. Other firms have set ambitious targets, including DA Davidson at $25.00, B. Riley Financial at $23.00 with a buy rating, and Oppenheimer at $19.00. On a twelve-month basis, Almonty’s stock has surged over 700%, closing last Friday at CAD 24.75 in Toronto.

Looking ahead, the company’s focus is on aggressive expansion. A Phase 2 expansion at Sangdong, targeted for completion by the end of 2027, aims to double annual production capacity. At full output, Almonty believes it could supply about 40% of the global tungsten demand outside China. For 2028, management is targeting annual revenue of around CAD 1 billion with a net margin of 60%.

Near-term milestones will provide critical validation. Upcoming quarterly results will include the first meaningful production volumes from Sangdong, testing the feasibility of projected margins above 50%. Concurrently, the company is advancing its Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, where the first U.S.-based tungsten production is slated to begin in the second half of 2026. The U.S. government has already explicitly exempted Almonty’s ores and concentrates from reciprocal tariffs, securing its supply line to U.S. processor Global Tungsten & Powders.

As defense deadlines loom and chipmaker inventories dwindle, Almonty Industries is transitioning from a development story to a pivotal producer in a market where geopolitics has become the ultimate price driver.