Almonty Industries Stock Surges to Annual Peak on Supply Squeeze and Mine Milestone

Almonty Industries hits a 52-week high as soaring tungsten prices, analyst upgrades, and the start of production at its flagship Sangdong mine drive a 364% YTD surge.

Shares of Almonty Industries soared to a fresh 52-week high of $17.31 on Thursday, propelled by a powerful combination of soaring commodity prices, a wave of analyst upgrades, and a key operational milestone. The stock has delivered a staggering year-to-date return exceeding 364%, positioning it among the market's top performers.

Tungsten Market Faces Severe Supply Constraints

The dramatic price action is fundamentally driven by a tightening tungsten market. Benchmark prices for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) have recently surged past the $1,000 per metric tonne unit (MTU) threshold. This spike is attributed to robust defense sector demand and a rapidly contracting global supply.

Analysts are revising their long-term price forecasts upward in response. Couloir Capital, for instance, has raised its long-term APT price projection from $450 to $800 per MTU. A BMO Capital Markets study from February 23 presents an even more acute picture, citing Fastmarkets data showing APT prices around $1,775 per tonne—far above the historical average of approximately $300. The implementation of Chinese export controls in 2025 has further destabilized the market, with some tungsten exports, including APT, falling to zero by the end of that year. BMO anticipates no relief in 2026, expecting depleted inventories and limited new supply to maintain elevated price levels.

Analyst Sentiment Shifts Sharply Upward

This favorable commodity backdrop has triggered significant re-ratings from research firms. On February 24, Couloir Capital more than doubled its fair value target for Almonty to CAD 19.30, up from a previous estimate of CAD 7.69, citing higher tungsten prices and improved production visibility. Despite this substantial increase, the firm maintained its Hold rating.

Other institutions have followed with similar adjustments. Earlier in February, DA Davidson lifted its price target from $12 to $18, while B. Riley Financial increased its target from $10 to $17. The current analyst consensus, according to MarketBeat, stands at "Moderate Buy."

Flagship Sangdong Mine Enters Production Phase

A critical de-risking event for the company was achieved operationally. Almonty's Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea commenced production in December 2025, with its first ore shipment successfully delivered. The facility is now undergoing a phased ramp-up toward its nameplate capacity, which the company targets to reach in 2027.

Couloir Capital also highlighted additional growth catalysts beyond Sangdong, including a capacity expansion at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, resource definition at the Sangdong molybdenum project, and development progress at the Gentung-Browns Lake project in the USA. The U.S. project could potentially be ready for production in the second half of 2026.

Geopolitical Tailwinds for a Critical Mineral

Almonty stands to benefit directly from shifting global supply chain dynamics for strategic materials. China currently controls an estimated 75% to 80% of the world's tungsten supply and has been actively restricting exports. The U.S. Department of Defense classifies tungsten as a critical mineral and has mandated that, starting in 2027, defense-related purchases must be sourced from non-Chinese suppliers.

The company's market capitalization is approximately $4.65 billion. Its negative price-to-earnings ratio of -72.61 reflects its current pre-profitability phase as it advances toward full production capacity. The future trajectory of the stock is expected to hinge on the pace of the Sangdong ramp-up, the direction of APT prices, and the ongoing geopolitical focus on securing critical raw material supply chains.