Almonty Industries Stock Soars as Wolfram Supply Crisis Deepens

Almonty Industries stock hits 52-week high as a global tungsten supply crunch, driven by China's export curbs, positions its key mines to capture massive market share.

Shares of Canadian miner Almonty Industries surged to a new 52-week high of CAD 30.66 on Thursday, capping a staggering 674 percent rally over the past twelve months. The stock is now trading roughly 31 percent above its 50-day moving average of CAD 23.31, reflecting intense investor interest driven by a severe shortage of the critical metal tungsten, or wolfram.

The company’s market capitalization has ballooned to approximately CAD 8.45 billion, supported by successful capital raises. A recent initial public offering injected USD 90 million, followed by a subsequent financing round of USD 129 million. These funds are earmarked for advancing Almonty’s flagship projects as it transitions from a developer to a producer.

A fivefold spike in tungsten prices is the core catalyst. China’s decision to tighten export restrictions has created a global supply crunch, depleting inventories to critical lows. This geopolitical shift is creating a historic opportunity for non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea is positioned to supply over 40 percent of the world’s tungsten production outside China once fully operational.

Phase 1 of the Sangdong project was completed in March 2026, with a Phase II expansion targeting 2027 to achieve an annual processing capacity of 1.2 million tonnes. The market is keenly awaiting a formal operational update, expected as soon as next week, on this critical asset’s ramp-up.

Concurrently, Almonty is advancing its first U.S. operational foothold: the Gentung-Browns Lake project in Montana. Targeting initial contributions by late 2026, this asset aligns perfectly with Washington’s push to onshore supply chains for critical minerals, backed by billions in federal subsidies. A pivotal U.S. defense law, set to take effect in 2027, will prohibit the use of Chinese tungsten in Pentagon contracts, a rule for which Almonty’s assets are strategically positioned.

The stock’s annualized volatility stands at 104 percent, underscoring the high-stakes environment. While the company reported a loss of CAD 0.48 per share in Q4 2025, valuation models point to significant future potential. Discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of CAD 43.36 per share, implying roughly 33 percent upside from current levels. Cantor Fitzgerald has issued a price target of CAD 36.00.

This optimism is reflected in a price-to-book ratio of 22.9x, which dwarfs the Canadian sector average of 3.3x. Analysts from firms like J.P. Morgan and Bank of America point to a structural supply-demand imbalance in industrial metals as a powerful tailwind for companies with advanced projects. The coming months present a formidable operational test, as Almonty must simultaneously manage the production ramp at Sangdong and the startup in Montana while aiming to deliver its first profitable results.