Almonty Industries Stands at the Crossroads of Geopolitics and Tungsten Demand

Canadian miner Almonty Industries gains 725% as Pentagon mandates non-Chinese tungsten supply by 2027, with Sangdong mine and Montana project leading the charge.

The stars are aligning for Almonty Industries in ways few mining companies ever experience. With China effectively shutting the door on tungsten exports and the Pentagon mandating a complete shift away from Chinese supply by January 2027, the Canadian miner has positioned itself as the West's most credible alternative. The stock market has taken notice: shares have surged more than 725 percent over the past twelve months, though they recently pulled back roughly 13 percent from a record high of C$32.07 as profit-takers moved in.

A Korean Mine With Western Ambitions

The linchpin of Almonty's strategy is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which began commercial production at the end of March. The facility is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually in its first phase, yielding an estimated 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong could supply nearly half of the West's tungsten requirements — a remarkable feat given that its ore grade of 0.51 percent is three times the global average.

That geological advantage translates directly into margin protection, and the company has locked in demand through long-term contracts. More than 90 percent of phase-one output is covered by a 15-year offtake agreement with a leading US defense contractor, complete with a price floor. Germany's KfW development bank has backed the expansion with a US$75 million loan.

Pentagon Mandates and a Montana Wildcard

The urgency behind Almonty's push is clear. Beginning January 1, 2027, all US defense contractors must source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty already has a binding offtake deal with Tungsten Parts Wyoming, which commits to purchasing at least 40 tonnes of tungsten oxide per month for use in missiles, drones, and munitions systems.

But the company isn't betting everything on Korea. In Montana, Almonty is advancing the Gentung project, which would mark the first commercial tungsten production on US soil in nearly a decade. With a planned annual capacity of 140,000 tonne units, production is slated to begin in the second half of 2026. Washington has explicitly exempted the company's ores and concentrates from US punitive tariffs, removing a potential hurdle.

China's Squeeze Reshapes Global Markets

The supply-side dynamics could hardly be more favorable for Almonty. In early 2025, Beijing replaced its quota system with a state-controlled licensing regime, restricting exports to just 15 approved companies. The impact has been dramatic: shipments of ammonium paratungstate collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 exports had all but halted.

The APT price has responded accordingly, climbing from around US$1,944 per unit in February to over US$3,100 in April. The knock-on effects are reaching far beyond defense. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could run dry as soon as this summer.

Institutional Interest and Upcoming Catalysts

The strategic narrative is drawing serious money. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty jumped more than 55 percent to 107. Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 17 with a buy rating and a US$25 price target, joining B. Riley Financial and DA Davidson, which set targets of US$23 and US$25 respectively in March. The consensus among the three analysts is a "Strong Buy."

The stock closed Friday at C$27.97, down nearly five percent on the day — a pullback that looks modest given the stock's annualized volatility of roughly 104 percent and rising short interest. Two key dates are on the horizon. On May 21, Almonty will release its first full production figures from Sangdong. Then on June 8, management plans to unveil concrete plans to double the mine's capacity at the annual general meeting — a presentation the market will be watching closely.