Almonty Industries: Sangdong’s First Output Arrives as Institutional Buyers Circle a Beaten-Down Stock

Almonty shares fall 43% from April highs as Sangdong production begins, but institutional buying and a 21-year offtake deal signal long-term value amid dual delisting pressure.

The timing could hardly be more awkward. Almonty Industries officially began producing ammonium paratungstate at its Sangdong mine on July 1, 2026, yet the stock has shed nearly a fifth of its value since that milestone. For a company finally transitioning from developer to producer, the disconnect between operational progress and market reception is stark.

The shares closed Monday at 18.80 Canadian dollars, a whisker below the 200-day moving average of 19.19 CAD and a painful 43.63 percent off the April record of 33.35 CAD. What looks like a rout to short-term traders, however, is drawing the attention of a different class of investor entirely.

Institutions Step In as Retail Wavers

Encompass Capital Advisors boosted its Almonty stake by 47.9 percent during the first quarter of 2026, accumulating more than 4.3 million shares. The fund now counts the tungsten miner as its ninth-largest portfolio holding — a vote of confidence that arrived even as the stock was already sliding from its highs.

That institutional buying matters because Almonty is no longer a micro-cap gamble. With a market capitalisation of 3.32 billion euros, the company has graduated to a scale where large-position build-ups can act as a stabilising force during volatile stretches. The annualised volatility currently sits at 81.04 percent, a figure that tends to shake out smaller holders while offering entry points for those with longer time horizons.

The Production Reality Behind the Price

Sangdong is currently running on a stockpile of roughly 139,700 tonnes of run-of-mine material with a tungsten oxide grade of just 0.25 percent. Management is deliberately using this lower-grade feed to stabilise the processing circuit before transitioning to higher-grade underground ore. The first-half 2026 throughput target stands at 640,000 tonnes, with an eventual ramp to 1.2 million tonnes annually.

The economics at full capacity are what underpin the bull case. Tungsten trades above 3,000 US dollars per metric tonne unit, while Almonty’s production costs are estimated at roughly 126.80 USD per MTU. That spread implies substantial cash-flow margins once the operation hits its stride.

A recently extended 21-year offtake agreement with the Plansee Group, through its Global Tungsten & Powders subsidiary, covers 90 percent of Phase I output. Such long-term revenue visibility is rare among junior miners and provides a contractual floor beneath the operational story.

The Dual Delisting Complication

The stock is also navigating a structural overhaul of its trading venues. Almonty will delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 31, 2026, followed by the Australian Securities Exchange in early September. The company intends to concentrate liquidity on Nasdaq and Frankfurt, but the transition is creating forced selling from investors unable or unwilling to hold shares on foreign exchanges.

That mechanical selling pressure compounds the technical damage already inflicted by the post-peak correction. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 38.8, approaching oversold territory but not yet signalling a reversal. The stock sits 20.60 percent below its 50-day average, though only 2.02 percent below the 200-day line — a level that now serves as the critical battleground.

Geopolitical Tailwinds vs. Ramp-Up Risks

China controls roughly 80 percent of global tungsten production, and from 2027 the United States will ban Chinese tungsten imports for defence applications. Sangdong, at full capacity, could supply about 40 percent of non-Chinese demand, positioning Almonty as a strategic asset for Western supply chains.

The bear case, however, focuses on execution. The transition from stockpile feed to underground ore rarely proceeds without hiccups, and any delay would push the expected second-half 2026 cash-flow inflection further out. The dual delistings add an unpredictable layer of selling that could deepen the correction if the 200-day moving average gives way.

What Comes Next

The next concrete milestone is the TSX delisting on July 31, which will clear the path for the new Nasdaq-Frankfurt trading structure. Whether the stock can reclaim the 19.19 CAD level in the meantime depends on Sangdong delivering a stable ramp with improving grades.

On a 12-month basis, the shares are still up 281.34 percent, and the year-to-date gain stands at 55.76 percent. The correction from April’s peak has undeniably reset expectations. For long-term holders, the combination of institutional accumulation, a 21-year revenue contract, and a mine that is finally producing ore may well outweigh the near-term friction of a market reorganisation.