Almonty Industries Receives Major Valuation Upgrade Amid Tungsten Market Surge

Analysts double Almonty's fair value to CAD 19.30 as tungsten prices surge and its Sangdong mine begins production, with shares up over 600% in a year.

A significant reassessment of Almonty Industries by market analysts has propelled the strategic mining company into the spotlight. The catalyst was a dramatic revision of the company's fair value estimate, reflecting powerful tailwinds in the global tungsten market driven by geopolitical shifts and robust sector demand.

Analyst Consensus Shifts Upward

On February 24, research firm Couloir Capital issued a substantial update to its model for Almonty. The analysts more than doubled their fair value estimate for the company's shares, raising it from CAD 7.69 to CAD 19.30—an increase exceeding 150%. This revision is rooted in a fundamental recalibration of long-term price assumptions for ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten compound. Couloir Capital adjusted its forecast upward from USD 450 to USD 800 per metric ton unit (MTU), noting that current benchmark prices are already trading above USD 1,000.

The primary drivers for this price surge are identified as heightened demand from the defense industry and Chinese export controls, effective since 2025, which are constricting global supply.

Operational Milestones Complement Market Trends

Beyond favorable market dynamics, Almonty is reaching critical operational goals. The company's flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea commenced active operations in December 2025. The project is currently in a phased ramp-up phase, targeting full production capacity by 2027. This transition from developer to producer marks a pivotal step for the company.

This progress has garnered positive attention from other research entities. Both DA Davidson and B. Riley Financial raised their price targets on Almonty shares in February, to USD 18.00 and USD 17.00 respectively. The prevailing analyst consensus currently stands at "Moderate Buy."

Share Performance Reflects Growing Optimism

The market response to these developments was immediate. On the NASDAQ, Almonty's stock price advanced over 8% in a single session to reach USD 16.77, accompanied by a notable increase in trading volume to approximately 2.19 million shares.

The longer-term performance is even more striking. On its home exchange, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), the value of the equity has multiplied more than sixfold over the past twelve months. From lows around CAD 2.19, the share price has rallied to approach its 52-week high of CAD 20.22, illustrating a profound market re-rating.

Structural Geopolitical Support

The macroeconomic landscape continues to provide strong tailwinds for Western producers like Almonty. A significant policy shift is on the horizon: effective January 1, 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense will prohibit the procurement of tungsten originating from China, Russia, and North Korea. Given tungsten's essential role in defense applications, hard metals, and drilling tools, Western industries are actively seeking secure supply chains outside these jurisdictions.

Investor focus now shifts to the execution of the Sangdong mine's ramp-up and the trajectory of commodity prices. Concrete financial insights into the impact of the production start are anticipated in March 2026, when Almonty is scheduled to release its next quarterly results.